本文主要是探討美國紐約史坦普爾500(Standard & Poor's 500,S&P 500)股價指數,對亞洲四小龍股票市場之間產生影響,進一步研究2008年金融風暴之後,SP500對亞洲四小龍股票市場〈台灣、香港、新加坡及韓國〉大盤指數報酬風險的傳遞分析,以供決策參考。 研究期間為2010年1月1日至2016年12月2日,透過GARCH模型探討分析美國(US)指數波動對亞洲股市的影響程度及各國波動情形。亞洲四小龍受US前一天報酬為正向統計顯著效果,其次序分別為香港(0.476)、韓國(0.386)、臺灣(0.384)及新加坡(0.292)。
This article examines the impact of the S & P 500 stock index on the NIE-4 stock market. After study of the 2008 financial crisis, the S & P 500 index analyzes the market risk-return rate of NIE-4 (Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea)’s stock market for decision-making reference. The data was collected from January 01, 2010 to December 02, 2016. The study adopted the GARCH Model to investigate the impact of the US S&P Index volatility on the Asian Stock Markets and the volatility of each country. The empirical results indicated the eve return of US S&P Index had significant positive influence on the NIE-4’ Stock Market: Hong Kong (0.476), South Korea (0.386), Taiwan (0.384) and Singapore (0.292) respectively.