我國經濟成長與所得分配關聯性之探討

近二十餘年來國際金融事件對我國的經濟成長及所得分配之影響甚鉅，2001年網際網路泡沫化，我國經濟成長率首次為-1.26%，吉尼係數亦攀升至0.35為歷年最高；2009年金融海嘯，經濟成長率為-1.57%，吉尼係數為0.345，無論是政府或是一般民眾都能感受到所得不均之嚴重性，易言之，隨著經濟成長所得分配似有不均之趨勢。政府為改善所得分配不均問題，國家發展委員會於2017年9月提出四大政策，分別社福策略、就業策略、薪資策略及租稅策略以期解決所得分配不均之問題。然而此四項政策是否可解決所得分配不均問題？本文使用複迴歸模型，以行政院主計總處公佈1994年至2016年數據資料，探討我國經濟成長及所得分配之關聯性及檢測政府為改善所得分配所提出之四大政策可能之效果。實證結果為經濟成長對所得分配之部份，吉尼係數的部份未達顯著，大島指標部份達顯著，皆呈現負向關係。檢測提升改善所得分配之四大策略部份為社福策略、薪資策略及租稅策略對所得分配可能影響的效果不大，唯有就業率有顯著的影響。由此可知政府可針對就業率持續提出相關政策，亦針對其他三項政策持續探討如何有效落實改善所得分配。

關鍵字

經濟成長率；所得分配；吉尼係數；大島指數

並列摘要

Over the past two decades, global financial events have significant effects on Taiwan's economic growth and income distribution. In 2001’s “Dot-com bubble”, Taiwan's economic growth rate was -1.26% for the first time reveal negative, and the Gini coefficient also climbed to 0.35, the highest in history. In 2009’s “financial tsunami”, Taiwan’s economic growth rate was -1.57%, and the Gini coefficient was 0.345. The innocence is that the government or the general public can feel the seriousness of the gap between the rich and the poor. In the long run, with the economy Growing up, the resulting unevenness is significantly worse. In order to improve the uneven distribution of income, the National Development Committee proposed four major policies in September 2017, social welfare strategy, employ-ment strategy, salary strategy and taxation strategy, respectively. This paper un-dertaken a multiple Regression model with data from 1994 to 2016 in the General Office of the Executive Yuan to discuss the correlation between Taiwan's econom-ic growth and income distribution and the possible effects of the four major policies proposed by the government to improve the distribution of income. The empirical result is the part of the distribution of economic growth to income, the part of the Gini coefficient is not significant, and the Oshima index is significant, both of which are negative. The four major strategies for detecting and improving the distribution of income are that the social welfare strategy, the salary strategy and the taxation strategy have little effect on the distribution of income, and only the employment rate has a significant impact. It can be seen that the government can continue to propose relevant policies for the employment rate, and continue to explore how to effectively implement the distribution of improvement income for the other three policies.