美中貿易戰對台灣銀行業之影響與因應策略

美國與中國大陸為世界前兩大經濟體，美中貿易近年來摩擦不斷，從過去的貿易合作關係至現今演變成貿易戰。台灣以往的經濟發展皆仰賴出口貿易，而台灣的出口國又以中國大陸和美國最為大宗，過去台灣、美國與中國大陸間的三角貿易(台灣接單、大陸生產、出口美國)盛行，美中貿易戰開打，勢必打擊到各個出口導向。受到美中雙方提高關稅稅率影響，不僅對全球金融市場造成波動，更加影響到台灣金融市場。本研究將從美中貿易戰的現況及發展趨勢，來探討美中貿易戰對台灣銀行業帶來的影響。本研究以模糊層級分析法(Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process，FAHP)為研究方法，藉由專家問卷調查評選指標，進行成偶比對評估，經過建立成偶比對矩陣，瞭解美中貿易戰對台灣銀行業影響之權重，藉由層級架構與整體層級權重的統計以求出各評估構面準則彼此間關係與相對重要性，並以此提出相關因應策略。研究結果顯示：(一)「償債能力」為最主要美中貿易戰對台灣銀行業的影響因素。(二)「產業鏈移轉」為美中貿易戰對台灣銀行業影響次要因素。(三)「融資狀況」為美中貿易戰對台灣銀行業影響第三因素。(四)「股市震盪」為美中貿易戰對台灣銀行業影響第四因素。(五)「市場風險」為美中貿易戰對台灣銀行業影響第五因素。

關鍵字

貿易摩擦；美中貿易戰；三角貿易；模糊層級分析法(FAHP)

並列摘要

The United States and China are the world's top two economies. The US-China trade has been in constant friction in recent years, and has evolved from a trade partnership to a trade war. Taiwan’s past economic development relied on export trade, and Taiwan’s exporting countries were the largest in mainland China and the United States. In the past, triangular trade between Taiwan, United States and mainland China (Taiwan orders, mainland production, and exports to the United States) prevailed. The US-China trade war is bound to hit various export orientations. It is affected by the higher tariff rates of the United States and China, which not only causes fluctuations in the global financial market, but also affects Taiwan's financial market. This study will explore the impact of the US-China trade war on Taiwan's banking industry from the current situation and development trends of the US-China trade war. In this study, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) was used as the research method. The expert questionnaire was used to evaluate the indicators and the odds pair evaluation was carried out. After the establishment of the odd-match matrix, the US-China trade war was discussed against the Bank of Taiwan. The weight of the industry impact is determined by the statistics of the hierarchical structure and the overall hierarchical weights to determine the relationship and relative importance of each evaluation facet criterion, and to propose relevant response strategies. The results of the study show that: Under US-China trade war, (1)"solvency" is the most important factor affecting Taiwan's banking industry. (2) "Industry chain transfer" is a secondary factor affecting Taiwan's banking industry. (3) "Financing status" is the third factor affecting Taiwan's banking industry. (4) "Stock market volatility" is the fourth factor affecting Taiwan's banking industryt. (5) "Market risk" is the fifth factor affecting on Taiwan's banking industry.