低利率環境下購屋房貸提前清償行為之研究

近年因銀行調降利率使得存放款的利差日益減少，房貸借款人提前清償的行為雖然可以降低銀行逾期放款的風險，但也對銀行帶來資金流量與利息收益不穩定的風險。因此，銀行在辦理購屋貸款授信案件時，對借款人貸款條件中多有約定提前清償違約金，以減少因借款人提前清償的風險。在這樣低利率的環境下，究竟有那些貸款者會選擇提前清償，造成銀行的流動性風險是本研究的主要目的。利用中部地區某商業銀行於2008至2011年期間承做的個人購置住宅貸款資料，探討影響提前清償購置住宅貸款之各種變項。研究的變數包含性別、年齡、教育程度、婚姻狀況、子女人數、住宅狀況、職業、年資、年所得、保證人、貸款金額、貸款成數、攤還方式、是否為首購、屋況等十五項變數，並以Logistic迴歸模型，分析購屋貸款借款人的提前清償行為。實證結果顯示，「年齡」、「貸款金額」、「貸款成數」、「是否為首購」等四項因素與提前清償行為具顯著相關性。

關鍵字

購屋房貸；提前清償；羅吉斯迴歸模型

並列摘要

In recent year, as the interest rate keeping in low level, the spread of loan and deposit rate was narrow. The mortgagor’s prepayment would cause the danger of uuncertainty liquidity and reduce the interest income of banks. Many banks charged the penalty for borrowers’ prepayment to cover this kind of loss. However, though mortgage borrower enjoyed the low cost of mortgage in such a low interest rate environment, there were certain proportion of mortgagors prepay the loan. This study was focus on mortgage borrowers’ prepayment behaviors, data were collected from a commercial bank, located in big Taichung city, period from year 2008 to 2011. The variables investigated included the gender, age, education, marriage, number of children, residential status, occupation, seniority, annual income, with or without guarantor, loan amount, loan to value ratio, type of payment, first-time housebuyer or not, housing conditions. The empirical results from Logistic regression model showed that the loan borrower’s age, loan amount, loan to value ratio, the first-time housebuyer or not, were significant related to mortgagors’ prepayment.