台灣在2002年加入WTO後,台灣經濟與世界經濟已經密不可分,於全球化經濟走向區域經濟整合趨勢下,台灣與中國大陸於2010年簽訂ECFA,進一步促進了兩岸的經濟貿易往來。本研究認為在台灣重要貿易對象—中國大陸簽訂貿易協定是值得探討的,爰此,本研究以引力模型探討1995年至2014年間台灣與中國大陸之GDP對海峽兩岸貿易流量之影響;台灣與中國大陸簽訂ECFA對海峽兩岸貿易流量之影響,兼論台灣加入WTO及中國大陸與香港簽訂CEPA對海峽兩岸貿易流量之影響。此外,亦使用線性迴歸分析探討台灣與中國大陸簽訂ECFA、台灣加入WTO及中國大陸與香港簽訂CEPA,對台灣進口關稅之影響。 研究結果顯示,台灣與中國大陸簽訂ECFA與兩岸貿易流量呈正相關但未達顯著水準;在進口關稅收入方面,實證分析顯示簽定ECFA與台灣進口關稅收入呈顯著正相關。綜合上述,台灣與中國大陸簽訂ECFA後,為台灣經濟層面帶來正向效果,無論是貿易流量或台灣關稅收入的增減,本研究結果顯示台灣與中國大陸簽訂ECFA為兩者均帶來正面影響。
After Taiwan’s accession to the WTO in 2002, the world economy is closely related with Taiwan. Economic globalization transform regional cooperation is current trends. Taiwan and Mainland signed ECFA at 2010. Promote economic development of Taiwan and Mainland. This article discusses the trade agreements of Taiwan and Mainland. So that this article used Gravity Model to probe 1995 to 2014 GDP and trade flows about Taiwan and Mainland. The impact of Taiwan and Mainland signed ECFA and trade flows, also on the impact of Taiwan’s accession to the WTO, China and Hong Kong signed CEPA and trade flows. Besides, the research used Linear Model to measure the impact of Taiwan and mainland signed ECFA, Taiwan's accession to WTO, China and Hong Kong signed CEPA on Taiwan's import tariffs. The research result is positive correlation, the impact of Taiwan and Mainland signed ECFA on trade flows, and didn't attain satisfactory levels, in Import tariff revenue respect, the research results is positive correlation, the impact of Taiwan and Mainland signed ECFA on tariff revenue. For the above reasons, it is positive correlation about Taiwan and Mainland signed ECFA for Taiwan's economic level, included trade flows or Taiwan tariff revenues.