租稅負擔率、經濟成長率與財政收支關聯之研究

我國自1990年代初期經濟起飛，經2000年的網路泡沫，再經2008年的金融風暴，歷年的經濟事件皆可能會影響租稅負擔率。故本文之研究目的係以經濟成長率和財政收支為變數，探討租稅負擔率、經濟成長率與財政收支之間的關聯性。本文使用向量自我迴歸模型，變數數據取自行政院主計總處和財政部統計資料庫1990年至2017年資料。實證結果顯示，本期租稅負擔率和前一期經濟成長率有顯著性，兩者為正相關；本期經濟成長率和前一期歲入有顯著性，兩者為負相關；本期歲入和前一期租稅負擔率有顯著性，兩者為負相關，本期歲入和前一期歲出有顯著性，兩者為負相關；本期歲出和前期租稅負擔率有顯著性，兩者為負相關，本期歲出和前期歲入有顯著性，兩者為正相關。

關鍵字

租稅負擔率；經濟成長率；財政收支；向量自我迴歸

並列摘要

Taiwan’s economy after the economic take-off period in 1990s to the Internet bubble in 2000 and the financial turmoil in 2008, economic events over the years seem affect the tax burden rate. The purposes of this study, with the economic growth rate and fiscal revenue and expenditure as variables, the relationship between the tax burden rate, economic growth rate and fiscal revenue and expenditure. This paper uses VAR model, the variable data were taken from the Statistics Office of the Executive Yuan and the Statistics Department of the Ministry of Finance from 1990 to 2017. Empirical result show that, the current tax burden rate and the previous economic growth rate are significant and positively correlated. The current economic growth rate and the previous government revenue were significant and negatively correlated. The current government revenue and the previous rental tax burden rate were significant and negatively correlated. The current government revenue and the previous government expenditure were significant and negatively correlated. The current government expenditure and the previous rental tax burden rate were significant negatively correlated. The current government expenditure and the previous government revenue are significant, and the two are positively correlated.