影響連鎖藥局存活分析之因素研究

A Study of the Factors Influencing Chain Pharmacy’s Survival Analysis

洪新墉(hung hsin yung)

指導教授 ： 陳世良

亞洲大學/管理學院/國際企業學系碩士班/碩士(2007年)

摘要

被喻為廿十一世紀重要的發明「連鎖加盟系統」，在追求降低成本、規模經濟的社會中正大行其道，連鎖加盟系統在運用上實為企業追求快速成長的重要策略選擇。過去研究多在探討為何選擇連鎖加盟經營及相關成功因素，但鮮少研究探討經營者為何選擇脫離該連鎖加盟系統。 本論文旨在研究臺灣連鎖加盟藥局產業的存活時間及相關影響因素；主要根據連鎖加盟的相關資源，比較直營與加盟形成的制度，資源稀少理論及代理理論。採用時間為產業有經濟規模的開始為時間點為研究樣本。並運用Cox’s 探討其發生危機機率。 研究結果顯示，負的迴歸係數表示自變的增加會減少危險的發生，正的迴歸係數表示自變的增加會增加危險的發生。當連鎖加盟店數增加時，體系生命時間也增加，且體系形成的方式不同對其體系的影響也不同。展店率愈高，連鎖加盟體系存活時間的長度將縮短。而固定時間支付的權利金愈高，加盟體系存活時間的長度也將縮短。對加盟店控制力不高的加盟體系在時間愈長情形下，風險愈大，存活率愈小。面對未來產業競爭，各體系制度形成與管理將為左右存活時間重要因素。

關鍵字

連鎖加盟、存活分析、危險機率

並列摘要

“The chain’s franchise system” known as the 21 century important inventions leads all the way in the reducing cost and the economies of scale society. The chain’s franchise system is actually the enterprise’s strategy choice for pursuing the fast growth. In the past studied many is discussing why chooses the chain’s franchise to manage and to be connected the successful factor, but the few research discuss the operator to choose is separated from this chain’s franchise system.
This paper is for the purpose of studying the Taiwan chain’s franchise pharmacy industry the survival time and the correlation influence factor; The main basis chain’s franchise related resources, the system which forms compared with the direct marketing and the franchise, the resources scarce theory and the agent theory. Choose the time of industry having the economical scale start to be the studied sample. And discusses it using Cox's to have the crisis probability.
The findings showed that, the negative regression coefficient expressed from changes the increase can reduce the dangerous the occurrence, the regression coefficient expressed from changes the increase can increase the dangerous the occurrence. When chain’s franchise shop number increase, the system life time also increases, also the system forms the way also is differently different to its system influence. Branches the shop rate to be higher, the chain’s franchise system survival time length will reduce. But the fixed time payment money is higher, the chain’s franchise survival time length will also reduce. To allies the shop controlling force not high chain’s franchise under a time longer situation, the risk is bigger, the survival percentage is smaller. Facing the future industry competition, various systems forms and the management will greatly determine the survival time.

並列關鍵字

chain’s franchise, survival analysis, hazard rate

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