價格是影響旅遊需求的重要因素,而構成旅遊價格的重要成分即為旅遊地之物價水準。本研究主要在於建立具彈性不對稱效果之國人亞洲旅遊需求體系估計模型,透過對文獻上實證模型設定的修正,將彈性不對稱效果導入需求函數,及需求體系之限制式,以驗證價格上漲與下跌階段,自身與交叉價格彈性值是否具顯著之差異。本研究以Huang(1983)提出之固定彈性需求體系(constant flexibility demand system)為基礎,不直接設定效用函數,透過一階微分近似法(first-order differential approximation)導出需求體系,並於需求體系中加入彈性不對稱調整項,同時將彈性不對稱加入各參數所應具有之限制條件,採用似乎無關聯迴歸法(seeming unrelated regression)估計國人赴亞洲旅遊之需求體系。研究結果顯示,除了日本之外其餘各國自身價格彈性皆為負值,支出彈性皆大於零;彈性不對稱調整項,日本、香港、馬來西亞及新加坡之自身價格調整項皆顯著,其中香港之未受補償自身價格需求彈性,在價格下跌階段絕對值大於一,價格上漲階段則小於一。透過殘差百分比均方根(RMSPE:Root mean square percentage error)以及泰勒提出的不等係數(Theil’s inequality coefficient)等,進行模型模擬能力之比較。結果顯示加入彈性不對稱效果之國人出國旅遊需求體系之配適度較佳,亦即,國人赴亞洲旅遊需求彈性具不對稱效果。
At a price is one of the important factors to impact tourism demand. Moreover, the major element of conducting tourism price leads by the nose of living material benchmark in the relevant local place. This research aims to build up the elasticity asymmetry of estimated model for Taiwanese tourism demand in Asia. By Proving the model set-up adjustment through the related literature, the elasticity asymmetry effects in the system and restrictions of demand functions, so as to verify the spike of upside & downside stage; further highlight the significant discrepancy between self & cross price elasticity.The research is referring to Huang(1983) which offers the constant elasticity demand system, indirectly setting up the effective functions. By one step similarity lead to the demand system & adding in elasticity asymmetry items, those factor in parameters with necessary restrictions. Adopt seeming unrelated regression estimation for the Taiwanese outbound tourism demand system in Asia.This research result is shown, each Asia countries’ self-price elasticity are negative & expenditure elasticity are greater than zero, except Japan; As of the elasticity asymmetry items, the country are like Japan, Hong Kong, Malaysia & Singapore which self-price adjustment are significant, specifically uncompensated self-price elasticity in Hong Kong is greater than 1 in price downside absolute value while upside is less than one. Through RMSPE & Theil’s inequality coefficient, conducts the comparison of ongoing model simulations. The end result shows that the added elasticity asymmetry effects model fit data better. In other words, it can be said that elasticity asymmetry effects is existed of the Taiwanese outbound tourism demand system in Asia.