本論文研究針對國內金融控股公司購併銀行業決策,建立一套以類神經網路為基礎的模式,預測購併後產生綜效的可能性分析,使國內金控公司在擬定合併策略時做出正確決定,降低買錯目標銀行的機率。 模式以被合併之銀行前三年財務資料為輸入變數,合併後2003年與合併前2001年度金控公司之每季平均股價差異為輸出變數,立用半徑式網路函數建立模型,進行訓練與測試並建立模型,研究結果顯示模型對於資料的判斷能力佳,可確實預測金控公司合併後之結果。 本論文的研究發現: 一、 金融控股公司合併銀行業後可產生綜效,以資產規模大之金控公司購併 銀行業能於短期內產生綜效。 二、 隨著電子商務的發展,銀行業導向網路服務,實行貴賓理財制度,可解決營業據點不足,並擴大服務範圍。 三、 合併後產生綜效,提升獲利能力方面,並未能達成預期目標,甚至有下跌情形。 四、 合併後資產品質,在金融業營業稅改為免稅,用以打銷呆帳降低逾放比率上,已有大幅改善。 五、 合併後資產規模擴大,以增加市場占有率,並未必能產生最大綜效,產業應追求最適規模,而不是資產規模最大化。 六、 目前國內金控公司購併綜效不明顯,建議未來採用策略聯盟的方式達到公司獲利最大化目標。
This thesis search aims at the domestic and financial finance company merger banking decision - making, building up a set of mode that takes a nerve net work as the foundation, producing the probability analyze of the synergy after predicting the merger, making the domestic funds do the accuracy to decide while drafting the amalgamation strategy, reducing the probability of buying the wrong object bank. Mode with the bank of the amalgamation the first 3 year the finance data for the import variants, after consolidating 2003 and consolidate in order to output the variable,2001 pr. qtr stock price average variance of the ex- funds of years sign to use the radius type net work function to build up the matrix, steering train and testing and building up the matrix, studying to as a result show the matrix''s criterion toward data ability good, after canning really predict the funds amalgamation it result. The search detection of this thesis : 1、Can produce the synergy after the financial finance company amalgamation banking , provide for to produce the large-scale funds to acquire the banking ability in the creation synergy inside the short term. 2、 Along with the evolution of the E-Commerce, the banking orientation net work services, practicing the honored guest to manage finance the system, can clinch the business base scarcity, and extension service scope. 3、 Produce the synergy after the amalgamation, promote the profit ability side, did not can reach the anticipated object, even have the situation of fall. 4、After the amalgamation the assets quality , change for the tax exemption in the financial industry sales tax, in order to beat to sell the sleeping account reduced price to over to put rate up, already have the significant recondition. 5、 The assets scale extends after the amalgamation, with the raise market share, did not can not fail to produce the biggest synergy, the domain should pursue the most suitable scale, not the assets scale maximizes. 6、 Currently the domestic funds merger synergy is not obvious, the tool that suggests to adopt the strategic alliance in the future hits the profit of the company maximizes the object.