利用以條件機率為基礎之模型於大學校園便利商店之顧客滿意度與銷售預測研究

A Conditional Probability-Based Framework to Evaluate Customer Satisfaction and Predict the Sales of A Convenient Store in A University

鄭玫君(Mei-Chun Cheng)

指導教授 ： 謝俊逸

亞洲大學/資訊學院/資訊科學與應用學系碩士班/碩士(2006年)

摘要

我國產業結構已從製造業轉型為服務業，傳統型的零售通路已無法滿足現代人對服務品質與便利的需求，導致便利商店在都會區與校園內蓬勃發展，對零售服務業的便利商店而言，顧客滿意是影響顧客忠誠的主要因素之一，而顧客忠誠卻是達到企業的永續成長的關鍵。本研究以大學校園內的便利商店為探討對象，藉顧客的消費觀點和感受，運用統計分析、重要性與績效分析、及條件機率模型預測方法進行顧客行為模式間的關聯、顧客滿意度之分析、及銷售預測方面的研究，並就研究分析結果給予客觀建議，提供企業經營決策之參考，以期提升顧客滿意度與企業營利，使企業提供更好的服務品質。本研究使用三種分析方法，分析結果如後述。
本研究以SPSS 13 for Windows進行問卷資料分析，使用「整齊清潔」、「服務態度」與「商店規劃」三個服務品質構面衡量顧客滿意度。研究結果發現，有十二項顧客滿意度的平均在「普通」以上；顧客到便利商店最常購買飲料類商品;主要顧客群以大學生為主；顧客之性別、主要零用金來源對三項服務品質構面與整體滿意度無顯著性影響；「服務態度」構面對整體滿意度的影響力較高。
在重視性與績效分析中發現，無任何服務變項落在重要性高與滿意度高的象限中，顯示商家應積極去創造關鍵優勢；而顧客覺得重要性高,但滿意度低的服務變項有五個，是商家應優先改善之經營重點；顧客較不重視也不滿意的服務變項有二個，商家必需要考慮此二項服務存在的必要性；顧客較為滿意但卻不重視的服務變項有七個，建議商家在這些服務變項上無需再投入過多心力。
銷售預測分析的結果顯示，整體滿意度較佳與較差的顧客群，在未來會逐漸減少在時段1(8:00AM-1:00PM)消費，而整體滿意度較佳的顧客群在未來會傾向在時段2(1:01-6:00PM)與時段3(6:01-10:30PM)進行消費。

關鍵字

便利商店 ； 銷售預測 ； 顧客滿意度 ； 馬可夫鏈

並列摘要

The industrial structure of our country has already made the transition from the manufacturing industry to the service industry. The traditional retail channels are unable to meet the modern needs from service quality and convenience aspects. This results in that the convenient stores have emerged in urban district and on school campus. It is realized that customer satisfaction is the major attribute to customer loyalty and customer loyalty is essential to the long-lasting growth of the company. This study focuses on analyzing the level of customer satisfaction from customer’s viewpoints and perceptions on the campus convenient store by statistical methods, using importance-performance analysis to improve customer satisfaction, and using a conditional probability-based modeling to predict the sales trend. The findings can be used for service improvement by the management , thereby lifting the level of customer satisfaction as well as increasing the profit. This research uses three constructs within the questionnaire, i.e., ‘Store neatness and Cleaness’, ‘Service Attitude’, and ‘Mechanize Plan’, to measure customer satisfaction.
By using SPSS for Windows 13, the following research findings are obtained: (1)the average values of 12 questions have reached “good” or “better”, (2)beverage and drinks are consumed most frequently, (3)the majority of customers for this convenient store are students, (4)the factors of gender and allowance source do not have significant influence to three constructs as well as the level of customer satisfaction, and (5)the ‘Service Attitude’ construct has higher influence to the level of customer satisfaction.
By using importance-performance analysis, the following research findings are obtained: (1)no service items fall in the first quadrant with high importance and high level of satisfaction, suggesting that the merchant should actively create certain key superiority, (2)there are five service items in the quadrant with high importance but low level of satisfaction, suggesting that they are the key items to merchant management for priority improvement, (3)two service items are in low importance and low level of satisfaction, suggesting that it is necessary for these two services’ existence, and (4)seven service items are perceived with high level of satisfaction but low importance, suggesting that the merchant skips the needs to invest excessive efforts on these services.
The results of sales trend analysis are with the following: (1)the overall expenditure of better satisfaction and worse satisfaction customer groups will gradually decrease in the future in the time zone 1(8:00AM-1:00PM), (2)the overall expenditure of better satisfaction customer group will be able to continue in the future in the time zone 2(1:01-6:00PM) and zone 3(6:01-10:30PM).

並列關鍵字

Convenient Store ； Predict Sales ； Customer Satisfaction ； Markov Chain

參考文獻

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