灰色系統旬入流量預測之研究

A Study of Grey System on Forecasting Ten-Day Inflow

王安培(An-Pei Wang) ； 廖珩毅(Heng-Yi Liao)

《中原學報》 32卷1期 (2004/03) Pp. 9-20

https://doi.org/10.6358/JCYU.200403.0009

摘要

旬流量的預報對水庫來說相當重要，若能更準確預測旬流量，對水庫水位的操作及水資源更有效率的運用有很大的幫助。由於臺灣特殊的氣候和地形，使年雨量大約有78%集中在夏、秋兩季，也造成旬流量預測實在非常困難，預測的準確度都不高。
本文以石門水庫為例，將石門水庫流域作為一灰色系統，探討流域內旬降雨量與旬流量間之相關度，應用微分水文灰色模式（DHGM）及1階1變數灰色源模型（GM(1,1)）兩種預測的方法，預測石門水庫旬流量，結果發現GM(1,1)比DHGM準確，但兩者在汛期期間之旬流量預測結果均差。本文以模糊理論結合灰色理論為模糊系統模式(GFSM)，找出颱風對石門水庫旬入流量之模糊隸屬度，再應用灰色系統的預測，結果發現GM(1,1)的預測可改善為更準確，此旬流量之預測可提供水庫操作參考。

關鍵字

灰色系統 ； 微分水文灰色模式 ； 灰色源模型 ； 灰色模糊系統模式

並列摘要

Forecasting ten-day inflow is very important for water resource operators. It would be a great help if the ten-day inflow can be estimated accurately. In Taiwan, roughly 78% of its yearly rainfall concentrates in the summer and autumn because of the particular weather and geographic characteristics. That is why forecasting ten-day inflow becomes a difficult work and hardly fulfill accurate requirement.
To analyze the relationship between ten-day rainfall and inflow of Shih-Men reservoir by using grey relation theory and to forecast ten-day inflow by using DHGM (Differential Hydrological Grey Model) and GM(1,1)(Grey Model of first-order of one variable) would be taken as an example in this paper. The prediction results by GM(1,1) model can achieve better accuracy than the DHGM. But, it is not good to forecast ten-day inflow for both model during flood period. The accuracy of forecasting ten-day inflow will be improved using Grey Fuzzy System Model (GFSM) which combined GM (1,1) model with fuzzy theory.

並列關鍵字

Grey System ； DHGM ； GM(1,1) ； GFSM