We use the demand characteristics of tour bus to establish a demandestimation method.The analysis result of the method indicates that the demand oftour bus has been experienced a steadily growth since 1987.In 1991 the tour busmarket occurred supply shortage,however,the market situation reverses since1997.In addition,our forecasting model says that the demand quantity of tour bushas decreased from 9.9% in 1998 to 3.28% in 2001.This finding shows that thegrowth rate of tour bus demand has tended to grow in a decreasing rate.Therefore,the data of demand and supply of tour bus suggests that the regulation policy oftour bus license should emphasis in strictly quantity control.