民眾預期與商品價格之穩定－目標區理論之應用

Expectation and Stabilization of Commodity Prices-An Application of Target Zone Theory

王葳(Vey Wang) ； 胡士文(Shih-Wen Hu)

《東海管理評論》 6卷1期 (2003/12) Pp. 1-30

摘要

本文嘗試將國際金融之匯率目標區理論應用到產業經濟領域，因而建立一個包括農產品市場及非農產品市場的兩部門模型，據以探討農產品價格目標區政策的穩定效果。然而，製造業產品的投資需求是名目利率的函數，亦是實質利率的函數，向來各方說法不一。因此，作者分別假設投資需求為名目利率或是實質利率的函數，據以說明農產品價格目標區政策的對商品價格的影響。
經由本文的分析，我們發現：若製造業產品之投資需求為名目利率的函數，政府設立農產品價格目標區，本質上對農產品價格具有穩定作用，亦即蜜月效果一定存在。但是，當製造業產品之投資需求為實質利率的函數時，蜜月效果存鄉與否，須視產品的價格效果相對於利率效果之大小而定。

關鍵字

目標區 ； 蜜月效果

並列摘要

We apply the target zone theory of international finance to industry economics and then set up a two-sector model including agricultural and manufactured markets. The main purpose of this article is to discuss whether the stabilization policy for agricultural price will support honeymoon effect under two kinds of assumptions. One is the investment demand for manufactured product is a function of nominal interest rate and the other is it is a function of real interest rate.
According our analysis we find the honeymoon effect of stabilization policy for agricultural price still stand if the investment demand for manufactured product is a function of nominal interest rate. While the existence of target zone for agricultural price may induce the instability of agricultural price when the investment demand for manufactured product is a function of real interest rate.

並列關鍵字

Target Zone ； Honeymoon Effect

參考文獻

曹添旺、黃俊傑(2000)。國際金融衝擊、貨幣供給調整與價格體制崩潰。經濟論文叢刊。28(3)，323-349。

賴景昌、王葳、胡士文(2000)。目標區與農產品價格的穩定：小型開放經濟之分析。農業經濟叢刊。6(1)，33-66。

賴景昌、張文雅(1989)。匯率制度變遷與物價調整方式。經濟論文叢刊。16(4)，543-563。

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