變與不變：性侵害再犯“穩定動態危險因子”與“急性動態危險因子”的關係

The Relationship between Static and Dynamic Risk Factors in a Sample of Taiwan Sexual Offenders

沈勝昂(Sheng-Ang Shen) ； 林明傑(Min-Chieh Jay Lin)

《犯罪學期刊》 10卷2期 (2007/12) Pp. 1-27

https://doi.org/10.29607/ZHWHGX.200712.0001

摘要

有效預防、降低性侵害再犯的關鍵在對再犯「危險因子」的掌握，而「危險因子」的「變動」正是反映加害人所處的「危險狀態」。本研究目的在確認構成再犯「動態危險因子」與其「變動」對性侵害加害人接受社區處遇操作的意義。
以臺灣樣本發展的「性侵害加害人動態危險評估量表」爲預測工具，Static-99爲效標，對181名接受社區處遇之假釋性侵害加害人進行間隔平約兩月半間，連續2次之評估追蹤。結果顯示：（一）動態危險因子的效度：穩定、急性動態危險因子確實可以預測Static-99評估的性侵再犯危險程度。不過顯著的解釋皆來自穩定動態危險因子，急性動態危險因子則未達顯著。其中「性的自我規範」與「個人特質」是較佳的兩項穩定動態危險因子。「性占有慾、幻想」與「對人敵意」則是較佳之兩項急性動態危險因子。（二）「動態危險分數改變」的意義：相對於穩定動態危險，急性動態危險因子的「改變」卻是有效的預測危險因素，穩定動態危險因子則否。「性的自我規範」及「個人特質」的「改變」是兩預測再犯危險程度的最佳指標。（三）不同再犯危險的分級：以Static-99之四個危險等級爲分類標準，分成低、中低、中高、高危險等四群，按照其在動態危險得分來區分危險等級。結果顯示雖然某些危險等級間有未答顯著的區分，但四個穩定動態危險等級的概念，大致上是可以嘗試進行的危險分級模式。
建議未來研究與實務應考慮：（一）爲量表效度與實務資料的完整，未來必須以「縱貫性」方式，建立「長期」加害人動態危險因子資料提供「再犯危險狀態」，以協助「靜態危險因子」的不足。（二）就目前性侵害社區處遇而言，動態危險因子分數的改變其實是要做爲處遇操作的參考。因此本質上性侵害「社區處遇操作」應以「動態危險因子分數變動」做爲處遇計畫擬定的基礎。

並列摘要

The present study, establishing the Taiwan Dynamic Risk-2004 and evaluating the reliability and validity of the Taiwan Dynamic Risk-2004 to predict recidivism in a sample of adult sexual offenders on community supervision, was prompted by the limited available research on dynamic risk predictors in Taiwan. The Taiwan Dynamic Risk-2004 was consisted of two parts, i.e., the stable dynamic risk factors and the acute dynamic factors. Therapists and parole officers supervising sexual offenders in a joint provincial study (the Dynamic Supervision Project) reported level of dynamic risk factor on a sample of over 181 sexual offenders. Significant correlations were found between the Static-99 and Taiwan Dynamic Risk-2004 scores. The Taiwan Dynamic Risk-2004 predicted level of risk on Static-99 moderately. Sexual Self-regulation and General Self-regulation are two significant preciction stable risk factors. Sexual Preoccupations and Hostility are two significant preciction acute risk factors. The magnitude of change in Taiwan Dynamic Risk-2004 also predicted level of risk on Static-99 moderately. However, Sexual Self-regulation and General Self-regulation are two significant preciction stable risk factors. These findings suggest that combining Static and Stable risk factors in an assessment tool provide an improved classification of risk and identify intervention targets for sexual offenders during community sexual treatment. Further discussion, implications, and limitations were presented.

並列關鍵字

sex offender ； stable dynamic risk factor ； acute dynamic risk factor

參考文獻

沈勝昂(2006)。性侵害犯罪加害人動態再犯危險因子與靜態危險因子關聯性之探測。犯罪防治學報。7，199-226。

沈勝昂、張秀鴛(2005)。性侵害加害人社區處遇的回顧與檢討。犯罪防治學報。4(2)，15-30。

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楊士隆(2004)。性侵害犯罪加害人再犯率及危險因子之研究。內政部性侵害犯罪防治委員會。

林明傑(2003)。性侵害犯罪加害人再犯危險評估量表之建立研究－靜態與動態危險因素之探測與整合。婦女權益促進發展基金會。