毒品施用者再犯危險因子分析及預測

An Analysis of Recidivistic Risk Factors and Their Prediction among Drug Abusers

黃春美(Chun-Mei Huang)

《犯罪學期刊》 13卷1期 (2010/06) Pp. 27-77

https://doi.org/10.29607/ZHWHGX.201006.0002

摘要

毒品濫用問題可說是當前國內、甚至全世界最嚴重的公共衛生和社會問題之一，毒品再犯的嚴重性一直是我國政府致力改善的目標。爲提供法務部所屬矯正機關發展本土戒治處遇模式和政府部門制定毒品相關政策的參考，本文蒐集民國87至96年全國戒治所實際出所之受戒治人，追蹤至96年底以了解其出所後影響再次施用毒品之行爲特性。
研究發現施用毒品者其再犯機率與性別、毒品級別、年齡、職業、教育程度和經濟情況有關，再犯之高危險群爲男性、施用一級毒品、無業、教育程度爲「國中高中」以下和經濟狀況較佳者，至於年齡則以18~30歲之再犯率最高。以再犯時間來看，受戒治人在出所後的前兩年，其再犯率有急速增加的現象，2年後至第5年有減緩趨勢，5年之後達穩定狀態；至於再犯風險高峰期則在出所後6個月至1年。另外，不同特性之再犯風險有顯著差異：男性再犯之風險高於女性，一級毒品再犯風險高於二級毒品，年齡則以「18~30歲」再犯風險最高，「55歲以上」最低；再犯風險在職業、教育程度、婚姻狀況和家庭經濟上的差異不大。

關鍵字

受戒治人 ； 再犯率 ； 羅吉斯迴歸 ； 存活分析 ； Cox比例危險模式 ； 再犯風險

並列摘要

Drug abuse is one of the most serious public health and social problems not only in Taiwan but also in the world. Effort on alleviating the drug recidivism has been an everlasting project for government in Taiwan. In order to provide Ministry of Justice the necessary information in developing local rehabilitation treatment model and in formulating drug-related policy, data on drug abusers who finished treatment and were released from treatment centers from 1998 to 2007 were collected. These drug abusers were traced to the end of 2007 so that their behaviors and characteristics of recidivism could be unveiled.
Through logistic regression, Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, we found that gender, level of drugs used, age, employment status, education background and economic status are the risk factors of recidivism for drug abusers, who with the characteristics being male, level 1 drugs users, jobless, education background under senior high school and better economic status had higher recidivism rates. As to age, those with age in between 18 to 30 have the highest recidivism rate. As far as recidivism time is concerned, the recidivism rate increases rapidly in the first two years when drug abusers were released from drug treatment centers. From the third year on, the recidivism rate gradually slows down and approaches to a stable level after five years. As to recidivism hazard, its peak occurs at 6(superscript th) month and remains high to one year. Different characteristics have significantly different recidivism hazard: male have higher recidivism hazard than female, level 1 drug users are higher than level 2. For age, age between 18 and 30 has the highest recidivism hazard, and age over 55 is the lowest. The discrepancies of recidivism hazard for different employment status, education background, marriage status and economic status are small.

並列關鍵字

Drug abuser ； Recidivism rate ； Logistic regression ； Survival analysis ； Cox proportional hazard model ； Recidivism hazard