公司營運業績有效預測模型－X公司案例

An Efficient Forecasting Model for Company Performance-A Case Study for Company X

黃惠民(Hui-Ming Wee) ； 黃文昌(Wen-Chang Huang) ； 王孔政(Kung-Jeng Wang)

《先進工程學刊》 3卷3期 (2008/06) Pp. 225-234

https://doi.org/10.29948/JAE.200806.0008

摘要

有效掌握公司營運狀況的因素，並精準的預測出其未來可能變動的趨勢，找出影響最大的關鍵因素並加以控制，便能使公司有效率的經營而能實現公司的目標。X公司在國內面板業占有重要的地位，本研究以此公司為例，針對其營業額的變動做預測，找出較能影響營業額之因素及較佳的預測方法。本研究採取定量預測法做為預測工具，針對兩種構面分析，第一構面以時間做為考量因素，採用移動平均法、指數平滑法等方法，而第二構面主要以三個影響營業額的因素為考量，採用迴歸預測法及倒傳遞類神經網路預測法等方法為預測工具，最後以平均絕對百分比差為評量的依據，找出較佳的預測方法。

關鍵字

定量預測法 ； 迴歸預測 ； 倒傳遞 ； 類神經網路

並列摘要

Efficient business operation must monitor the performance of a firm and make effective forecasting. This study builds a forecasting model for the performance of company X which is one of the leading TFT-LCD companies in Taiwan. Major factors affecting its revenue are identified. The proposed forecasting model is developed by applying a set of quantitative methods. Time series analyses such as moving average and smoothing techniques are employed. In addition, three predicators are applied in a regression model and a back-propagation neural network model respectively. Mean absolute percentage error is used to evaluate and select the best forecasting model accordingly. Experiments show that the proposed forecasting model performs well in practice.

並列關鍵字

quantitative forecasting ； regression models ； back-propagation ； neural networks