國內不動產證券化商品投資風險之研究

On the Risk of Real Estate Securitization for Domestic Financial Goods Investments

黃沛璿(Pei-Hsuan Huang) ； 鄭紹材(Shao-Tsai Cheng) ； 余文德(Wen-Der Yu)

《中華建築學刊》 2卷1期 (2005/10) Pp. 35-43

摘要

國內的不動產證券化市場、法令等仍在起步的階段。大多數文獻僅限於制度面及法令面，無法貼近市場的現況，不易讓投資者及決策者，提供較系統的思維及層級性的觀念，以分析投資的風險。本研究即針對國內的不動產證券化投資商品，結合德菲法與層級分析法之問卷設計，選擇營建機構、證券公司與銀行業之主管進行問卷訪談，以探討國內的不動產證券化投資商品風險因子。研究結果顯示：使用德菲法之27份專家問卷分析彙總之風險因子，獲得「投資地區房地產市場景氣變動」等21項；使用層級分析法之50份有效問卷之風險因子權重分析，結果顯示風險因子權重最高之準則為「投資地區房地產市場景氣變動」及「投資地區利率上升風險」等。本研究結果皮工不動產證券投資者分析不動產證券商品風險之有效分析工具。

關鍵字

不動產證券化 ； 層級分析法 ； 德菲法

並列摘要

The domestic real estate securitization market of Taiwan is in its infant stage. Most previous researches covered only on the introduction of the real estate financial goods and development of legal structure. Few were on the most important factor related to practical applications of such goods-risk analysis. The paper is dedicated to the analysis of risk related factors that affect the investors' decision on real estate securities. The research methodology combines Delphi and Analytic Hierarchy Process via questionnaire surveying to 27 experts from local construction firms, security brokers, and bankers. The result of study identifies 21 items, e.g., ”fluctuation of regional real estate market”, etc. The relative importance weightings of the identified risk-related criteria are obtained through AHP analysis. The top ranked criteria are: (1) fluctuation of regional real estate market; and (2) increase of regional interest rate. The result of this research provide local investors a useful framework for risk analysis of real estate financial goods.

並列關鍵字

Real Estates Securitization ； Analytic Hierachy Process ； Delphi