性犯罪再犯風險預測因子的本質與應用

Predictors of Sexual Offense Recidivism: Characteristics and Application

黃健(Chien Huang) ； 溫瑞祥(Jui-Hsiang Wen) ； 黃永順(Yung-Shun Huang) ； 鄭安雄(An-Hsiung Cheng)

《亞洲家庭暴力與性侵害期刊》 1卷1期 (2005/12) Pp. 137-162

https://doi.org/10.29804/AJDVSO.200512.0005

摘要

性犯罪再犯評估是性犯罪者強制治療程序中重要的一環。性再犯預測途徑包括「無參照依據之臨床調整」、「依據臨床資料之調整」及「純依案件事實資料之危險量表」，使用之工具應接受信度考驗及效度的交叉確認。評估項目應涵蓋靜態因子與動態因子兩部分。以Hanson氏後設分析為依歸，彙整出國內學者確認之危險因子中，與性犯罪再犯顯著相關者，發現只佔各工具總評估項目的30-70%左右，顯示國內性犯罪再犯危險因子與歐美有所差異。國內學者可參考「臨床調整型精算程序」，以靜態精算預測工具為基礎，融入特殊的動態危險因子。性再犯危險預測的執行策略應包括初步分級（靜態因子量表）、診療前分類（動態因子量表）及治療後評估（實徵引導型或臨床調整型精算評估）。

關鍵字

性犯罪再犯 ； 靜態危險因子 ； 動態危險因子

並列摘要

The risk assessment in sexual offense recidivism is one of the vital processes in 'Sexual Offender Civil Commitment' program. Approaches to predicting sexual offense recidivism are categorized into (1) unguided clinical judgment, (2) empirical-guided judgment and (3) purely actuarial scale assessment. Required under such approaches, ideally it should include an evaluation of internal reliability and a cross-validation study. The risk factors included in the structural assessment may cover static factors or dynamic factors or both. In comparison, the local researchs here have identified various risk factors, correlated to sexual offense recidivism, not appearing or insignificant in Hanson's meta-analysis reports. The disparity after 6 local studies shows a range difference of 30-70%. This result suggests that there may be certain unique characteristics that are not found in European-American societies. Henceforth, local researchers here, may alternatively consider to turn to the clinical adjusted actuarial procedure. For this instrument can be adjusted by adding dynamic predictors so as to deal with the unique characteristics. With reference to the execution of the 'Sexual Offender Civil Commitment' program, we suggest that the risk assessment process should follow three main stages, sequentially. There are initial classification (static factors), adjustment of the pre-treatment risk classification (dynamic factors), and a post-treatment evaluation (empirically-guided or clinical adjusted actuarial procedure).

並列關鍵字

sexual offense recidivism ； static risk factors ； dynamic risk factors