國際法政產業人力之預測模型研究

國際法政包含法律與政治、國際法與國際政治，舉凡各項國際政治關係、國際金融秩序、國際貿易關係、國際法規、國際組織等都是國際法政的範疇。國際法政產業研究領域在國科會的專題研究上歸屬於法律學、政治學、經濟學、管理學（人文與社會科學類）四大領域。國際法政可以運用到諸多領域上，並可藉此加強產業架構，以期帶動經濟產業發展。本研究利用「國科會科技計畫資料庫」中87－98年申請專題研究計畫補助的實際數據進行整理與分析，並採用指數平滑法建立人力預測模型，藉此預測未來幾年國際法政產業的人力資源發展趨勢。研究結果顯示99年度至104年度的國際法政產業預測人數為一穩定上升現象，科技計畫人力供需同步反映，人力供給與需求趨勢大致相同。研究預測模型中99至104年的每年人力供給成長率為6.50%，跨領域需求而導致的人才流出比例為僅2.7%，人力供給應可穩健成長。雖然申請人數、通過件數及計畫核定金額有著不錯的成長率，但是由於國際區域經濟的競合變化導致的國際關係轉變與國際合作的需求增加，因此國際法政產業的人力成長似乎仍未合乎需求。

關鍵字

國際法政；指數平滑法

並列摘要

The International Law and Politics industry include the law and politics, the international law and the international politics, each like international politics relations, international financial ordering, the international trade relations, the international rules, the International organization and some related categories. The International Law and Politics industry research area in National Science Council's(NSC) definition also include the jurisprudence, the politics, the economic and the management science (humanities and the social sciences class) four main domains. This industry's research may use to many domains, and take advantage of the industrial construction, leads the economical development by the time.Based on the data analysis of NSC's Technology Program Database from year 1998 to 2009, we builds up a personnel forecasting model by Exponential Smoothing Methods to forecast the manpower trend in the field of International Law and Politics industry in the upcoming years. The study indicates the manpower dedicated to this field has a smooth increase from 2010 to 2015. To meet the increasing manpower demand of industry, the supply of high quality research manpower also steps up has parallel growth. In the forecast model 2010 to 2015 year average manpower supplies growth rate is 6.50%, the cross domain demand causes the personnel flows out rate is just 2.7%. We can say that the manpower supplies are steady.Although the application, the number of articles and the plan checking amount has good growth rate, but because the international zone economy, the international relations transformation and the international cooperation competes or jointly increases, therefore the international law and Politics industry's manpower growth rate seems still not enough the exactly demand.