臺灣毛豬拍賣順序與價格關聯性之研究

Does Price Decline Exist in Sequential Auctions? Evidence from a Taiwanese Hog Market

林文宏(Wen-Hung Lin) ； 郭恆宏(Heng-Hung Kuo) ； 賀力行(Li-Hsing Ho)

《育達科大學報》 34期 (2013/04) Pp. 163-171

摘要

本研究探討在「連續式拍賣」的架構下，拍賣先後順序與價格之間存在的遞減關係。臺灣毛豬拍賣市場對拍賣先後順序的決定，有一套公開的抽籤機制，這項隨機化過程的特徵對研究拍賣順序與價格的關聯性有助益。過去在相關議題的研究，並無以毛豬這項商品為主題，然而台灣毛豬拍賣市場的資料結構很適合此項議題的探討。本研究蒐集每日彰化毛豬拍賣市場，從2010年1月1日至6月30日止，總共交易拍賣144天，5,130批毛豬的價格與拍賣順序的資料，以計算每日Pearson相關係數與屬於無母數統計方法的Kendall相關係數，來檢定「連續式拍賣」的價格遞減趨勢。吾人發現「連續式拍賣」的順序與價格呈現統計上顯著的反向關係；除此之外，假日效應會因假日的供需變化而降低了價格遞減的傾向，雖然和拍賣順序同樣仍存在顯著的負相關。本研究對政策的建議是，依價格公平性考量，決定拍賣順序的公開抽籤制度有其必要性，仍應繼續維持。

關鍵字

拍賣順序 ； 價格 ； 毛豬 ； 拍賣市場

並列摘要

This study examines price anomalies related to the order of sales in a sequential auction under specific institutional characteristics. It assesses a Taiwanese hog auction market using a stochastic process for ordering the lots. The unique process proposed in this paper that replaces predetermined artificial auction orders ignores the econometrical process to negate the influence of product quality on price anomalies. Further, the study of price anomalies in sequential auctions for heterogeneous goods is lacking in the literature. Data comprising 144 sequential hog auctions with 5130 lots were collected from 1 January to 30 June 2010. Pearson correlation and Kendall coefficients were calculated to observe the declining price tendency in such auctions. We find a negative relationship between auction price and ordering according to both significant linear and nonparametric coefficients. The holiday effect also exists in several instances. This implies that the demand and supply of holidays eases the tendency for prices to decline. To ensure fairness, we also show that the random regulation of the lot order is necessary.

並列關鍵字

Sequential Auction ； Price ； Hog ； Auction Market

參考文獻

農產品批發市場管理辦法 (民 79 年修正)。

顏月珠 (民 80)。應用數理統計學 (修訂四版)。台北市：三民。

Ashenfelter, O. and Graddy, K. (2003) Auctions and the price of art, Journal of Economic Literature, 41, 763–87.

Beggs, A. and Graddy, K. (1997) Declining values and the afternoon effect: evidence from art auctions, RAND Journal of Economics, 28, 544–65.

Conover W. J. (1999) Practical Non-Parametric Statistics, 3rd edition, John Wiley & Sons, New York.