中共社會與經濟發展對其國防支出影響之研究

A Study for the Influence of China's Social and Economic Development on Its National Defense Expenditure

葉金成(Chin-Chen Yeh) ； 劉自強(Z-John Liu) ； 董耕廷(Keng-Ting Tung)

《國防管理學術暨實務研討會》 第十九屆 (2011/06) Pp. 1-18

https://doi.org/10.29497/GFGL.201106.0001

摘要

自1990年起迄今，中共之國防支出每年均以兩位數比例成長，期能在2030年以前，實現其國防軍事現代化目標。本研究以國家發展理論為基礎，以系統動態（力）學為方法論建構「中共軍力非線性動態預測模型」作為真實系統的代理，針對中國未來的人口結構變動、經濟成長和社會發展趨勢加以預測，及其對國防預算之排濟影響進行模擬詴驗。結果顯示，中國在未來經濟成長會趨緩，及人口結構漸趨老化的情況下，社福支出將逐年上升，對國防支出有相當程度的排擠作用，因此將延緩軍事目標達成的期程，甚至造成財政赤字。排擠現象和對財政的影響有如我國（台灣）的情形，研究結果可做為我國擬定國防戰略和國家預算資源分配策略之參考。

關鍵字

國家發展理論 ； 人口結構 ； 經濟與社福 ； 國防支出 ； 系統動態學

並列摘要

In order to fulfill the goal of military modernization before 2030, China’s national defense expenses have increased by the ratio of two digits every year since 1990. This study takes the prediction differently because of its lack of theoretical bases. The result indicates that in the future the economic growth will become slower, the population structure will become older, and the social welfare spending will become higher. All of these will bring about a quite exclusive effect to the national defense expenses. As a consequence, the schedule of reaching the military goal will be postponed, and even result in a budget deficit. The situations of the exclusive effect and financial influence are about the same as those in Taiwan, so the researching result can be a reference for our country in projecting the national defense strategy and the distribution of national budget.

並列關鍵字

National Development Theory ； Population Structure ； Social & Welfare ； Defense Expenditure ； and System Dynamics