- 會議論文
- OpenAccess
中國國防支出對東南亞國家國防支出與經濟成長關聯性研究
China's Defense Spending on Southeast Asian Countries Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth Associate Research
摘要
中國的崛起引起世界各國的關注，尤其是經濟改革開放後所帶來的經濟成長與國防經費每年帄均以超過兩位數的成長，引發鄰近國家的關心與憂慮。東南亞國協成立的目的主要是在促進區域內之經濟合作，擴大成長繁榮。本研究利用「國防支出成長率」、「經濟成長率」等二項數據進行研究，並採取Barro的內生成長模型作為研究之理論基礎，建構一向量自我迴歸模型，以1988年至2009年年資料進行檢定中國國防支出對東南亞國協（新加坡、印尼、馬來西亞、泰國、汶萊、菲律賓等六國）國防支出與經濟成長的關係。研究實證發現中國國防支出與菲律賓國防支出互有顯著正向因果關係。新加坡國防支出與經濟成長有顯著正向關係，而汶萊經濟成長對國防支出有顯著正相關。
並列摘要
China's economic growth and military power have been improving dramatically in recent years. However, China increases defense expenditure to improve its military power which already exceeds its self-defense need and makes the other countries of Asia raised doubt its intention. China's rise especially after the economic reform and opening up as a result of economic growth and the average annual defense spending by more than two-digit growth raising concern and worries in neighbouring countries. ASEAN was established to promote economic cooperation and prosperity of this region. The paper examines the impact of China's armaments expansion on defense expenditure and economic growth in ASEAN (Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Brunei, the Philippines, Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia) using vector autoregression model and Granger causality test for the period 1988-2009.Empirical study found that it has positive bidirectional relationship between China and the Philippines' defense expenditure. There is significant unidirectional causality between defense expenditure and economic growth in Brunei and Laos. It also indicates that the direction of causality from economic growth to defense expenditure in Singapore.