本研究將預算漸進理論及間斷平衡理論延伸至探討台灣再生能源政策變化及效率。為了檢驗政策輸入及輸出之間的關係，本研究使用西元2007年至2020年行政院經濟部能源局的單位預算資料，及三類能源相關基金預算作為政策輸入指標，以及台灣再生能源發電裝置容量作為政策輸出指標；並使用間斷平衡理論中的組織摩擦要素探討兩者關聯。

本研究採用敘述性統計以實證了解所使用資料的穩定性及間斷程度。結果發現，除了能源局預算資料呈現符合漸進式理論之分佈模式之外，其餘所有資料在所指定時間區間內皆呈現間斷程度不等的分佈模式。輸入及輸出指標間亦存在政策滯後，以質性角度進行描述之。

本研究結論預算間斷理論應用於非預算資料分析之有效性。儘管相關產業政策受到高度矚目，若相關利害關係人無法提供具一致性之外部環境，仍可能使企業遇到阻礙，進而影響政策之效率及預期結果。

This study extends the theoretical approaches of Incrementalism Theory and Punctuated Equilibrium Theory to investigate Taiwan’s renewable energy policy change and efficiency. To examine the relation between policy input and output, this study uses the 2007 - 2020 budgeting for the Bureau of Energy (the Ministry of Economic Affairs) and three energy-related funds data as input indicators, while Taiwan’s accumulative installed capacity of renewable energy as output indicators. Furthermore, institutional frictions are introduced to describe the relations in between.

This study adopts descriptive statistics to confirm empirical evidence for stability and punctuality. The results of this study show that all indicators display evidence for different degree of punctual changes in given periods except the unit budgeting of the Bureau of Energy depicts an incremental distribution. There are policy lags existing between input and output indicators, which are elaborated from a qualitative perspective.

This research thus concludes that applications of Punctuality Equilibrium Theory to non-budgeting dataset. Despite the high attention distributed on the agenda, when related stakeholders failed to provide a consistent external environment, firms encountered obstacles, reducing policy’s efficiency in converting to expected outputs.

Chapter 1: Introduction 1
Chapter 2: Development of Taiwan’s renewable energy laws and regulations 6
2.1: Energy Administration Act 7
2.2: The Electricity Act 8
2.3: National Energy Conference 8
2.4: Petroleum Administration Act 9
2.5: Renewable Energy Development Act 9
2.6: Forward-looking Infrastructure Program 10
Chapter 3: Literature Review 12
3.1: Incrementalism Theory 12
3.2: Punctuated Equilibrium Theory 14
3.2.1: Bounded rationality & disproportionate information processing 16
3.2.2: Institutional friction 19
3.2.3: Government Bureaucracy 26
3.2.4: Incentives 28
Chapter 4: Methodology and data 31
4.1: Descriptive statistics methods 31
4.1.1: Mathematical concepts 31
4.1.2: Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test 33
4.1.3: Shapiro-Wilk Test 34
4.2: Data sources and preprocessing 34
4.2.1: Unit budget of Bureau of Energy 35
4.2.2: Subordinate unit budget of Energy Research and Development Fund 36
4.2.3: Subordinate unit budget of Petroleum Fund 36
4.2.4: Subordinate unit budget of Renewable Energy Development Fund 37
4.2.5: Electricity generation installed capacity 38
Chapter 5: Results 41
5.1: Descriptive statistics results 41
5.2: Frequency distribution plots 50
5.2: Skewness and kurtosis results 55
5.3: Normal distribution test results 57
Chapter 6: Discussion 60
6.1: Input data 60
6.2: Output data 62
6.3: Impact of institutional friction 65
Chapter 7: Conclusion 72
7.1: Theoretical contributions 72
7.2: Practical contributions 73
7.3: Research limitations and future examination 74
References 76
Appendix 83
Appendix A: Annual budget of Energy Research and Development Fund 2007-2000 83
Appendix B: Annual budget of Petroleum Fund 2007-2020 84
Appendix C: Annual budget of Renewable Energy Development Fund 2010-2021 85
Appendix D: Annual accumulative electricity installed capacity 1982-2021, categorized by sources 86
Appendix E-1: Annual accumulative electricity installed capacity 1982-2021, categorized by ownerships 88
Appendix E-2: Annual accumulative electricity installed capacity 1982-2021, categorized by ownerships 90

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