本研究旨在探討過度自信的經理人如何影響會計穩健性與股價崩跌風險之間的負向關係。過去研究發現，會計穩健性有助於抑制負面消息隱藏的行爲。然而，過度自信的經理人通常伴隨潜在代理問題，當有負面盈餘消息時，他們會對未來樂觀並相信自己有能力扭轉負面消息而傾向不揭露，因而產生較高的股價崩跌風險。因此，本文將討論過度自信經理人、會計穩健性與股價崩跌風險三者的相互關聯性。
本研究以台灣2008年至2020年上市櫃公司為樣本。實證結果顯示，會計穩健性與股價崩跌風險的負向關係在公司經理人過度自信時較明顯。本文也進一步證明了當其他公司治理機制較差時，此負相關會更顯著。這主要是因爲會計穩健性作爲公司治理不可或缺的一環，與其他公司治理機制互爲替代關係，從而減輕由過度自信經理人引發的代理問題與壞消息隱藏帶來的後果，進而降低股價崩跌風險。本文的貢獻在於從經理人特徵與資本市場的角度，補充了關於會計穩健性與其他公司治理的替代性關係的研究。

The purpose of this paper aims to examine how overconfident chief executive officer (CEO) can influence the negative relationship between accounting conservatism and future stock price crash risk. The past findings indicated accounting conservatism could prevent bad news from accumulating and withholding to some degree. Overconfident CEOs are often associated with potential agency problems and they may be optimistic about the future and believe the concealed bad news would reverse, which can lead to stock price crashes. Therefore, it is interesting to investigate the relations among overconfident CEOs, accounting conservatism and stock price crash risk.
Using the data of companies listed in Taiwan from 2008 to 2020, the empirical results indicate that the negative correlation between accounting conservatism and stock price crash risk is exacerbated when firms with overconfident CEOs. Furthermore, the additional test shows this significant negative effect is more pronounced when firms have weaker other corporate governance mechanisms, because accounting conservatism, an important role in corporate governance, could alleviate potential agency problems and further decrease crash risk. Overall, this study complements the existing literature on the substitutive between accounting conservatism and corporate governance from managerial characteristics and capital market perspective.

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與背景 1
第二節 研究架構 4
第二章 文獻探討與研究假說 5
第一節 股價崩跌風險 5
第二節 經理人過度自信 10
第三節 會計穩健性及其和股價崩跌風險的關係 13
第四節 經理人過度自信對會計穩健性與股價崩跌風險之間的影響 16
第三章 研究方法 19
第一節 資料來源與處理 19
第二節 實證模型之建立 22
第三節 變數衡量之方法 23
第四章 實證結果與分析 34
第一節 敘述性統計 34
第二節 相關係數檢定 35
第三節 迴歸結果分析 38
第四節 穩健性測試 45
第五節 追加測試 50
第五章 研究結論、建議與限制 57
第一節 研究結論 57
第二節 研究建議與限制 58
參考文獻 59

一、 中文文獻
王貞靜、潘虹華、戚務君，2012，C-Score衡量會計穩健性在臺灣的適用性，會計審計論叢，第2卷，第2期：1-31。
李佳珊，2019，租稅天堂與股價崩跌風險，國立成功大學會計系出版碩士論文。
許文馨、林玟君，2013，董監事責任險、債務契約與盈餘保守性，臺大管理論叢，第24卷，第1期：1-42。
戚務君、陳宜伶，2008，資本市場對盈餘品質的影響：來自臺灣的證據，管理評論，第27卷，第2期：53-67。
張祐慈、謝安軒、陳美惠、戚務君，2021，關鍵查核事項複雜度與股價崩跌風險，會計審計論叢，第11卷，第1期：1-31。
范心瑜，2018，從代理人的角度探討管理者能力對股價崩跌風險之影響，國立臺北科技大學經營管理系未出版碩士論文。
楊哲明，2006，機構投資人持股與公司治理關聯性之研究，國立雲林科技大學未出版碩士論文。
楊錦之、張園園，2016，會計穩健性、機構投資者异質性與股價崩盤風險——來自中國A股上市公司的經驗證據，審計與經濟研究，第31卷，第5期：61-71。
魏哲海，2018，管理者過度自信、資本結構與公司績效，工業技術經濟，第37卷，第6期：3-12。
蘇寶玉、李合龍，2018，兩岸三地初次上市櫃公司會計盈餘穩健性之影響因素，會計與公司治理，第13卷，第1期：49-87。
王思凱，2012，會計穩健對價值攸關性影響之研究：IFRS觀點，國立成功大學會計系出版碩士論文。
二、 外文文獻
Adam, T. R., Fernando, C. S., & Golubeva, E. 2015. Managerial overconfidence and corporate risk management. Journal of Banking & Finance, 60: 195-208.
Ahmed, A. S., & Duellman, S. 2007. Accounting conservatism and board of director characteristics: An empirical analysis. Journal of accounting and economics, 43 (2-3): 411-437.
Ahmed, A. S., & Duellman, S. 2013. Managerial overconfidence and accounting conservatism. Journal of accounting research, 51 (1): 1-30.
Alicke, M. D., Klotz, M. L., Breitenbecher, D. L., Yurak, T. J., & Vredenburg, D. S. 1995. Personal contact, individuation, and the better-than-average effect. Journal of personality and social psychology, 68 (5): 804-825.
Amihud, Y., Mendelson, H., & Wood, R. 1990. Liquidity and the 1987 stock market crash. Journal of Portfolio Management, 16 (3): 65-69.
An, H., & Zhang, T. 2013. Stock price synchronicity, crash risk, and institutional investors. Journal of Corporate Finance, 21: 1-15.
Andreou, P. C., Antoniou, C., Horton, J., & Louca, C. 2016. Corporate governance and firm‐specific stock price crashes. European Financial Management, 22 (5): 916-956.
Badia, M., Duro, M., Penalva, F., & Ryan, S. G. (2021). Debiasing the measurement of conditional conservatism. Journal of Accounting Research, 59 (4): 1221-1259.
Ball, R., Kothari, S. P. & Robin, A. 2000. The effect of international institutional factors on properties of accounting earnings. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 29: 1-51.
Ball, R., Li, X., & Shivakumar, L. 2015. Contractibility and transparency of financial statement information prepared under IFRS: Evidence from debt contracts around IFRS adoption. Journal of Accounting Research, 53 (5): 915-963.
Ball, R., & Shivakumar, L. 2005. Earnings quality in UK private firms: comparative loss recognition timeliness. Journal of accounting and economics, 39 (1): 83-128.
Barber, B. M. and Odean, T. 2013. Chapter 22-The Behavior of Individual Investors.
Handbook of Economics of Finance, 2 (2): 1533-1570.
Basu, S. 1997. The conservatism principle and the asymmetric timeliness of earnings1. Journal of accounting and economics, 24 (1): 3-37
Beaver, W. H., & Ryan, S. G. 2005. Conditional and unconditional conservatism: Concepts and modeling. Review of accounting studies, 10 (2): 269-309.
Benmelech, E., Kandel, E., & Veronesi, P. 2010. Stock-based compensation and CEO (dis) incentives. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125 (4): 1769-1820.
Bernardo, A. E., & Welch, I. 2001. On the evolution of overconfidence and entrepreneurs. Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, 10 (3): 301-330.
Callen, J. L., & X. Fang. 2013. Institutional investor stability and crash risk: Monitoring versus short-termism?. Journal of Banking & Finance, 37 (8): 3047-3063.
Callen, J.L. & X. Fang. 2015a. Religion and Stock Price Crash Risk. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 50 (1-2): 169-195.
Callen, J. L., & X. Fang. 2017. Crash risk and the auditor–Client relationship. Contemporary Accounting Research, 34 (3): 1715-1750.
Capen, E. C., Clapp, R. V., & Campbell, W. M. 1971. Competitive bidding in high-risk situations. Journal of petroleum technology, 23 (06): 641-653.
Chan, K., & Hameed, A. 2006. Stock price synchronicity and analyst coverage in emerging markets. Journal of Financial Economics, 80 (1): 115-147.
Chang, X., Chen, Y., & Zolotoy, L. 2017. Stock Liquidity and Stock Price Crash Risk. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 52 (4): 1605–1637.
Chauhan, Y., Kumar, S., & Pathak, R. 2017. Stock liquidity and stock prices crash-risk: Evidence from India. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 41: 70-81.
Chen, C., Kim, J. B., & Yao, L. 2017. Earnings smoothing: does it exacerbate or constrain stock price crash risk?. Journal of Corporate Finance, 42: 36-54.
Chen, J., Hong, H., & Stein, J. C. 2001. Forecasting crashes: Trading volume, past returns, and conditional skewness in stock prices. Journal of financial Economics, 61 (3): 345-381.
Chi, W., Liu, C., & Wang, T. 2009. What affects accounting conservatism: A corporate governance perspective. Journal of contemporary accounting & economics, 5 (1): 47-59.
Coffee Jr, J. C. 2004. Gatekeeper failure and reform: The challenge of fashioning relevant reforms. BUL Rev., 84: 301-364.
Cohen, D. A., Dey, A., & Lys, T. Z. 2008. Real and accrual‐based earnings management in the pre‐and post‐Sarbanes‐Oxley periods. The Accounting review, 83 (3): 757-787.
DeAngelo, L. E. 1981. Auditor size and audit quality. Journal of accounting and economics, 3 (3): 183-199.
Dechow, P. M., Sloan, R. G., & Sweeney, A. P. 1995. Detecting earnings management. The Accounting review, 70 (2): 193-225.
DeFond, M., & Zhang, J. 2014. A review of archival auditing research. Journal of accounting and economics, 58 (2-3): 275-326.
DeFond, M. L., Hung, M., Li, S., & Li, Y. 2015. Does mandatory IFRS adoption affect crash risk?. The Accounting Review, 90 (1): 265-299.
Dimson, E. 1979. Risk measurement when shares are subject to infrequent trading. Journal of Financial Economics, 7 (2): 197-226.
Dutta, S., & Gigler, F. 2002. The effect of earnings forecasts on earnings management. Journal of accounting Research, 40 (3): 631-655.
Englmaier, F. 2010. Managerial optimism and investment choice. Managerial and decision Economics, 31 (4): 303-310.
Englmaier, F. 2011. Commitment in R&D tournaments via strategic delegation to overoptimistic managers. Managerial and Decision Economics, 32 (1): 63-69.
Eraker, B., Johannes, M., & Polson, N. 2003. The impact of jumps in volatility and returns. Journal of Finance, 58 (3): 1269-1300.
Feng, M., Li, C., & McVay, S. 2009. Internal control and management guidance. Journal of accounting and economics, 48 (2-3): 190-209.
Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., & Lichtenstein, S. 1977. Knowing with certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human perception and performance, 3 (4): 552.
Fouad, A., & Ahmed, R. B. 2001. Growth opportunities and earnings management. Managerial Finance, 27 (12): 72-81.
Francis, B., Hasan, I., & Li, L. 2016. Abnormal real operations, real earnings management, and subsequent crashes in stock prices. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 46 (2): 217-260.
Frank, J. D. 1935. Some psychological determinants of the level of aspiration. The American Journal of Psychology, 47 (2): 285-293.
Garcia Lara, J. M., García Osma, B., & Penalva, F. 2009. Accounting conservatism and corporate governance. Review of accounting studies, 14 (1): 161-201.
Gervais, S., Heaton, J. B., & Odean, T. 2002. The positive role of overconfidence and optimism in investment policy.
Givoly, D., & Palmon, D. 1982 . Timeliness of annual earnings announcements: Some empirical evidence. The Accounting review 57 (3): 486-508.
Goss, A., & Roberts, G. S. 2011. The impact of corporate social responsibility on the cost of bank loans. Journal of Banking & Finance, 35 (7):1794-1810.
Graham, J. R., Harvey, C. R., & Rajgopal, S. 2005. The economic implications of corporate financial reporting. Journal of accounting and economics, 40 (1-3): 3-73.
Graham, J. R., Harvey, C. R., & Puri, M. 2013. Managerial attitudes and corporate actions. Journal of financial economics, 109 (1): 103-121.
Gunny, K. A. 2010. The relation between earnings management using real activities manipulation and future performance: Evidence from meeting earnings benchmarks. Contemporary accounting research, 27(3): 855-888.
Hackbarth, D. 2008. Managerial traits and capital structure decisions. Journal of financial and quantitative analysis, 43 (4): 843-881.
Hall, B. J., & Murphy, K. J. 2002. Stock options for undiversified executives. Journal of accounting and economics, 33 (1): 3-42.
Hambrick, D. C., & Mason, P. A. 1984. Upper echelons: The organization as a reflection of its top managers. Academy of management review, 9 (2): 193-206.
Hamm, S. J., Li, E. X., & Ng, J. 2012. Management earnings guidance and stock price crash risk. In Japan Accounting Review Conference.
Harakeh, M., Lee, E., & Walker, M. 2022. Understanding how the effects of conditional conservatism measurement bias vary with the research context. European Accounting Review: 1-32.
He, J. J., & Tian, X. 2013. The dark side of analyst coverage: The case of innovation. Journal of Financial Economics, 109 (3): 856-878.
Healy, P. M., & Palepu, K. G. 1993. The effect of firms' financial disclosure strategies on stock prices. Accounting horizons, 7 (1): 1-11.
Heaton, J. B. 2002. Managerial optimism and corporate finance. Financial Management, 31(2): 33-46.
Hu, J., Li, A. Y., & Zhang, F. F. 2014. Does accounting conservatism improve the corporate information environment? Journal of international accounting, Auditing and Taxation, 23 (1): 32-43.
Hutton, A. P., Marcus, A. J., & Tehranian, H. 2009. Opaque financial reports, R2, and crash risk. Journal of financial Economics, 94 (1): 67-86.
Hsu, C., Novoselov, K. E., & Wang, R. 2017. Does accounting conservatism mitigate the shortcomings of CEO overconfidence? Accounting Review, 92 (6): 77-101.
Jeppson, C. T., Smith, W. W., & Stone, R. S. 2009. CEO compensation and firm performance: Is there any relationship?. Journal of Business & Economics Research (JBER), 7 (11).
Jin, L., & Myers, S. C. 2006. R2 around the world: New theory and new tests. Journal of financial Economics, 79 (2): 257-292.
Karamanou, I., & Vafeas, N. 2005. The association between corporate boards, audit committees, and management earnings forecasts: An empirical analysis. Journal of Accounting research, 43 (3): 453-486.
Khan, M., & Watts, R. L. 2009. Estimation and empirical properties of a firm-year measure of accounting conservatism. Journal of accounting and Economics, 48 (2-3): 132-150.
Kim, C., Wang, K., & L. Zhang. 2019. Readability of 10‐K reports and stock price crash risk. Contemporary accounting research, 36 (2): 1184-1216.
Kim, J. B., Li, Y., & Zhang, L. 2011a. Corporate tax avoidance and stock price crash risk: Firm-level analysis. Journal of financial Economics, 100 (3): 639-662.
Kim, J. B., Li, Y., & Zhang, L. 2011b. CFOs versus CEOs: Equity incentives and crashes. Journal of financial economics, 101 (3): 713-730.
Kim, J. B., Wang, Z., & Zhang, L. 2016. CEO overconfidence and stock price crash risk. Contemporary Accounting Research, 33 (4): 1720-1749.
Kim, J. B., and L. Zhang. 2016. Accounting conservatism and stock price crash risk: Firm-level evidence. Contemporary Accounting Research, 33 (1): 412-441.
Kim, Y., Li, H., & Li, S. 2014. Corporate social responsibility and stock price crash risk. Journal of Banking & Finance, 43: 1-13.
Klein, A. 2002. Audit committee, board of director characteristics, and earnings management. Journal of accounting and economics, 33(3): 375-400.
Kothari, S. P., Shu, S., & Wysocki, P. D. 2009. Do managers withhold bad news? Journal of Accounting research, 47 (1): 241-276.
LaFond, R., & Watts, R. L. 2008. The information role of conservatism. The Accounting review, 83 (2): 447-478.
Langer, E. J. 1975. The illusion of control. Journal of personality and social psychology, 32 (2): 311-328.
Larcker, D. F., Richardson, S. A., & Tuna, I. R. 2007. Corporate governance, accounting outcomes, and organizational performance. The Accounting review, 82 (4): 963-1008.
Lee, M. T. 2016. Corporate social responsibility and stock price crash risk: Evidence from an Asian emerging market. Managerial Finance.
Liberti, J. M., & Petersen, M. A. 2019. Information: Hard and soft. Review of Corporate Finance Studies, 8 (1): 1-41.
Luo, Q., & Hachiya, T. 2005. Corporate governance, cash holdings, and firm value: evidence from Japan. Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies, 8 (4): 613-636.
Malmendier, U., & Tate, G. 2005. CEO overconfidence and corporate investment. Journal of finance, 60 (6): 2661-2700.
Malmendier, U., & Tate, G. 2008. Who makes acquisitions? CEO overconfidence and the market's reaction. Journal of financial Economics, 89 (1): 20-43.
Miller, D. T., & Ross, M. 1975. Self-serving biases in the attribution of causality: Fact or fiction?. Psychological bulletin, 82 (2): 213-225.
Mitra, S., & Cready, W. M. 2005. Institutional stock ownership, accrual management, and information environment. Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance, 20 (3): 257-286.
Moore, D. A., & Healy, P. J. 2008. The trouble with overconfidence. Psychological review, 115 (2): 502-517.
Oliver, B. R. 2005. The impact of management confidence on capital structure. Available at SSRN 791924.
Piotroski, J. D., & Roulstone, D. T. 2004. The influence of analysts, institutional investors, and insiders on the incorporation of market, industry, and firm‐specific information into stock prices. The Accounting review, 79 (4): 1119-1151.
Robin, A. J., & Zhang, H. 2015. Do industry-specialist auditors influence stock price crash risk?. Auditing: A Journal of Practice & Theory, 34 (3): 47-79.
Ross, M., & Sicoly, F. 1979. Egocentric biases in availability and attribution. Journal of personality and social psychology, 37 (3): 322.
Santa-Clara, P., & Yan, S. (2010). Crashes, volatility, and the equity premium: Lessons from S&P 500 options. Review of Economics and Statistics, 92 (2): 435-451.
Schwert, G. W. 1990. Stock returns and real activity: A century of evidence. Journal of Finance, 45 (4): 1237-1257.
Segarra, A., & Teruel, M. 2014. High-growth firms and innovation: an empirical analysis for Spanish firms. Small Business Economics, 43 (4): 805-821.
Skinner, D. J., & Srinivasan, S. 2012. Audit quality and auditor reputation: Evidence from Japan. The Accounting Review, 87 (5): 1737-1765.
Svenson, O. 1981. Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers?. Acta psychologica, 47 (2): 143-148.
Watts, R. L. 2003a. Conservatism in accounting part I: Explanations and implications. Accounting horizons, 17 (3): 207-221.
Watts, R. L. 2003b. Conservatism in accounting, Part II: evidence and research opportunities. Accounting Horizons, 17 (4): 287-310.
Weber, J., Willenborg, M., & Zhang, J. 2008. Does auditor reputation matter? The case of KPMG Germany and ComROAD AG. Journal of Accounting Research, 46 (4): 941-972.
Weinstein, N. D. 1980. Unrealistic optimism about future life events. Journal of personality and social psychology, 39 (5): 806-820.
Xie, B., Davidson III, W. N., & DaDalt, P. J. 2003. Earnings management and corporate governance: the role of the board and the audit committee. Journal of corporate finance, 9 (3): 295-316.