筆記型電腦產業具有需求與供給不確定性情況存在，本研究發展的品類管理決策方法能解決顧客需求不確定性與零組件供給不確定性；另一方面，解決顧客需求不確定問題可使用延遲策略，製造商供應不確定所產生的傷害包括無法滿足顧客訂單上的產品型式，因此，本研究發展客製化之延遲策略模式預測客製化程度以解決顧客需求不確定與製造商供應不確定。

本研究提出適合台灣各種不同規模和經營環境的筆記型電腦產業之零組件管理方法，利用品類管理觀念以解決顧客需求不確定與供應商供給不確定性的問題，在關鍵零組件定義上，可使用單位零組件價格與供應廠商數目等因素作灰關連分析排列，排列出影響關鍵零組件之因素，接著以ABC零組件存貨權重之倉儲空間調整演算法、不同歸屬函數設定方法、解模糊化的德菲層級分析法與指數迴歸函數法，決定不同類別零組件之適當品類管理參數設定。透過所提出之品類管理決策方法，可以估計滿足客戶需求的存貨水準以解決需求不確定並且估計零組件從採購到入庫所需的前置時間以解決供給不確定，經由事先模擬各種可能之訂單變更狀況，來降低缺料風險及存貨之成本。
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另一方面，筆記型電腦產業之延遲策略應用，常以生產總成本最小、產品類型最大及平均組裝時間最小為量化目標，同時以顧客需求的零組件模組種類及零組件模組存貨數量為決策變數，因此，本研究構建一延遲策略多目標規劃模式，在需求不確定性函數中，則應用需求頻率及需求量分別服從卜瓦松分配及常態分配，由於各個目標式的單位不相同，因此，可以使用ε限制法求解多目標規劃問題；再來，利用多目標規劃所求得的生產成本與顧客基本需求的零組件模組等參數，求出最佳客製化程度與分析利潤函數中各因子間的相互關係，製y商可以依據市場需求的不同型式，配合製造商在供給不確定情況下想要達成的利潤，以製造商利潤最大為目標，訂定最合適的客製化程度。最後，以一家筆記型電腦廠商為例進行實證分析，提供筆記型電腦業者在執行品類管理決策方法與產品客製化程度決定；並分析各項參數的敏感度，提供決策者相關建議，以作為進行相關決策時的參考依據。

There is uncertain demand and supply in the notebook computer industry. This research develops a category management decision-making method can solve the problem of dealing with uncertain customer demand and supply. On the other hand, uncertain customer demand can be solved by using a postponement strategy. Manufacturers’ uncertain supply situation includes their failure to satisfy the product type specifications of clients’ orders. Thus, this research develops a postponement strategy of customization to predict the customization degree, in order to solve uncertain customer demand and manufacturers’ supply.

This research suggests a supply part management that is suitable for the notebook computer industry, with varied scales and operational environments in Taiwan, and solves the uncertainty of customer demand and supplier supply with the concept of category management. As for definitions of key supply parts, gray correlation sequencing analysis was conducted with unit price of supply parts and the number of suppliers, the gray sequencing correlation analysis was applied to sort the effect factors of key supply parts. Subsequently, with ABC of inventory weight re–allocation algorithm, different membership function constructions, Delphi analysis of defuzzification and exponential regression function method were used to determine the proper setting of category management parameters of supply parts in different categories. The category management decision-making method can be used to estimate the inventory level required to satisfy customer demand, to solve uncertain demand, as well as to estimate the lead time of supply parts from purchase to stock, thereby solving the problem of uncertain supply. By simulating different possible changes of orders, the risk of part shortages and cost of stock part can both be reduced.

In addition, postponement strategy in notebook computer industry tends to treat minimum total production cost, maximum product type and minimum assembly time as the objects of quantification. Besides, the kinds of supply part modules of customer demand and inventory amount of supply part module are regarded as the decision variables. Thus, this research constructs a postponement multi-objective planning model. In an uncertain demand function, demand frequency and demand amount are used to meet Poisson distribution and Normal distribution. Since the units of the objectives differ, multi-objective planning can be realized via ε-constraint method. Besides, optimized customization degree can be obtained and the correlation among the factors of profit functions can be analyzed according to the results of multi-objective planning considering the parameters of production cost and the supply part module of basic customer demand. Manufacturers can construct the most proper customization degree according to different types of market demand and the profit objectives in supply uncertainty, with the goal of maximizing profits. Finally, an empirical analysis was conducted on a notebook computer company to function as the reference for category management decision-making method and product customization degree of notebook computer companies. The sensitivity of the parameters was analyzed and related suggestions were provided.

目錄
摘要I
AbstractII
誌謝III
目錄IV
圖目錄VII
表目錄VIII
第一章 緒論1
1.1 研究背景1
1.2 研究動機1
1.3 研究目的2
第二章 文獻探討4
2.1 供應鏈之需求與供給不確定4
2.1.1 需求不確定5
2.1.2 供給不確定7
2.1.3 需求與供給不確定7
2.2 品類管理9
2.2.1 模糊理論應用於存貨管理11
2.2.2 不確定性應用於品類管理11
2.3 多評準決策的分類13
2.3.1 多屬性決策13
2.3.1.1 量化評估法 14
2.3.1.1.1 TOPSIS方法14
2.3.1.1.2 簡單加權法15
2.3.1.2 質量中介法 15
2.3.1.2.1 ELECTRE方法15
2.3.1.3 質化評估法 16
2.3.1.3.1 層級分析法16
2.3.2 多目標規劃16
2.3.2.1 決策者完全不提供偏好資訊17
2.3.2.1.1 權重法17
2.3.2.1.2 ε－限制法18
2.3.2.1.3 非劣解估計法20
2.3.2.1.4 多目標單行法20
2.3.2.2 決策者事前提供偏好資訊21
2.3.2.2.1 目標規劃法21
2.3.2.2.2 妥協規劃法21
2.3.2.2.3 效用函數法21
2.3.2.2.4 模糊規劃法22
2.3.2.3 互動多目標規劃法23
2.3.2.3.1 互動法或交談式法23
2.3.2.3.2 季高林法 23
2.4 供應鏈量化模式與延遲策略23
2.4.1 供應鏈數量模式23
2.4.2 供應鏈管理之延遲策略25
2.5 客製化模式探討 25
2.6 參考文獻結論27
第三章 品類管理模式與延遲策略模式之應用28
3.1 品類管理模式研究29
3.1.1 品類管理模式應用於解模糊化過程 29
3.1.1.1 以灰關連分析排列法決定影響關鍵零組件之因素31
3.1.1.2 以庫存滿足率決定零組件採購前置時間34
3.1.2 決定滿足客戶所需之零組件庫存水庫以解決需求不確定39
3.1.3 估計訂購零組件的前置時間以解決供給不確定42
3.1.4 以產品的生命週期曲線作為訂單變更水準之依據46
3.2 延遲策略模式預測客製化程度47
3.2.1 延遲策略分析架構47
3.2.1.1 延遲策略分析架構之定義與量化目標之選擇47
3.2.1.2 決策變數之選擇48
3.2.1.3 需求不確定性說明48
3.2.1.4 量化模式構建說明48
3.2.1.5 參數說明48
3.2.1.6 多目標規劃模式之構建49
3.2.1.7 模式說明50
3.2.1.8 多目標規劃之需求不確定函數51
3.2.1.9 模式求解方法說明51
3.2.2 供給不確定下之製造商供給產品的客製化程度模式53
3.2.2.1 研究假設53
3.2.2.2 模式基本假設53
3.2.2.3 模式架構說明53
3.2.2.4 決策變數54
3.2.2.5 參數設定54
3.2.2.5.1 期間內轉換購買意願之顧客需求機率之基本需求54
3.2.2.6 不同需求型式之客製化與利潤函數關係模型55
3.2.2.7 相加型線性需求56
3.2.2.8 相乘型線性需求56
3.2.2.9 非線性型需求56
第四章 案例說明58
4.1 品類管理案例說明58
4.1.1 進行所需資料內容的建立58
4.1.2 決定滿足客戶所需之零組件庫存水庫58
4.1.3 估計訂購零組件的前置時間與零組件需求60
4.1.4 調整存貨管理決策方法參數與品類管理建議61
4.2 延遲策略模式預測客製化程度案例說明62
4.2.1 總成本、組裝時間與產品型式數目下的非劣解組合關係63
4.2.2 總成本及組裝時間與需求不確定性與的非劣解組合關係65
4.2.3 產品單位成本、產品數量與產品型式的關係66
4.2.4 製造商供給不確定的客製化程度與利潤模式的關係70
第五章 討論73
5.1 品類管理模式與相關研究之比較73
5.2 延遲策略模式預測客製化程度與相關研究之比較74
第六章 結論與建議77
6.1 結論77
6.2 建議79
參考文獻80


圖目錄
圖2.1、多評準決策方法之分支架構14
圖3.1、研究流程28
圖3.2、ABC零組件存貨權重之倉儲空間調整演算法35
圖3.3、最保守估計以及最樂觀估計的資訊示意圖42
圖4.1、產品單位成本、產品數量與產品種類的關係圖67


表目錄
表2.1、需求不確定性產品特性 5
表2.2、採購功能層次表7
表2.3、需求/供給不確定性分類8
表2.4、決策者完全不提供偏好資訊之四種方法比較20
表2.5、不同目標值所認定之歸屬度22
表3.1、影響關鍵零組件重要度之因子排序32
表3.2、作業流程分類方式33
表3.3、作業流程特性初步分類33
表3.4、設定ABC零組件權重優先表37
表3.5、倉庫接單後的統計相關資料38
表3.6、增加M1倉位空間0.2 38
表3.7、增加M1倉位空間0.4 39
表3.8、決定滿足客戶所需之零組件庫存水庫決策的評量表40
表3.9、決定滿足客戶所需之零組件庫存水庫結果40
表3.10、決定滿足客戶所需之零組件庫存水庫的歸屬函數41
表3.11、不同的預期前置時間需求水準之5個關係釋例43
表3.12、向供應商採購數量與入庫所花費的前置時間44
表3.13、x次數指數迴歸關係45
表3.14、解模糊化參數說明45
表3.15、供應鏈延遲策略成本項目48
表4.1、 P產品的訂單資料59
表4.2、存貨水準德菲層級分析矩陣表59
表4.3、零組件存貨水準的歸屬函數方程式59
表4.4、重複計算次數與最終零組件需求量60
表4.5、品類管理建議該公司目前採用零組件的採購數量比較結果61
表4.6、模擬運算結果61
表4.7、品類管理對應各建議性的參數設定62
表4.8、品類管理的類別分類62
表4.9、零組件模組供應價格資料63
表4.10、總成本與平均組裝時間之非劣組合(W=1)64
表4.11、總成本與平均組裝時間之非劣組合(W=2)64
表4.12、總成本與平均組裝時間之非劣組合(W=3)64
表4.13、總成本與平均組裝時間之非劣組合(W=4)64
表4.14、總成本與平均組裝時間之非劣組合(W=6)65
表4.15、總成本、平均組裝時間與固定產品型式數目下的非劣解組合關係65
表4.16、總成本與平均組裝時間之非劣組合(W=1;固定Poisson分配λ=1,x=1)66
表4.17、總成本與平均組裝時間之非劣組合(W=1; 固定常態分配的 σ=1)66
表4.18、採購 與運輸 成本增加比例分析67
表4.19、零組件模組備料準備時間(tc)增加比例分析69
表4.20、以表4.14之內容進行3種不同需求型式之客製化程度分析70
表4.21、以表4.20之D5之3種需求模式之不同客製化比例之比較72
表4.22、以表4. 20的D5之單位固定生產成本與客製化程度關係72
表5.1、不同模式估計顧客需求之比較75

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