供應商管理存貨（Vendor-Managed Inventory, VMI, or Supplier-Owned Inventory, SOI）的應用，提供了快速迎合客戶需求與大幅縮短供貨前置時間的解決方案，但對於供應商而言，導入VMI將承擔更大的存貨壓力。如何在維持對客戶服務水準不變下，改善供應商內部不當決策對於存貨的衝擊，以降低供應商於HUB倉存貨壓力，將能有助於供應商具有更大意願配合導入供應商管理存貨的營運模式。此外VMI運作必須仰賴買賣雙方間之協同預測與補貨機制，因此彰顯協同預測與補貨議題愈來愈重要。
HUB倉的存貨控制取決於補貨量的制定，過去研究發現影響VMI中HUB倉的補貨量因子相當多，滾動式預測、補貨前置時間、未來需求變異等皆會導致實際需求與原先規劃的補貨量有所出入，此時就會發生存貨堆積或是缺貨產生。因此一個良好的補貨策略如何考量這些影響補貨量的因素，以使存貨控制做的更好，是值得更深入研究與探討。
本研究使用考量前置時間的有效率的補貨策略，此補貨策略特別考慮並充分應用買方給予的滾動式預測資訊，由於此補貨策略是以未來需求預測資訊進行補貨決策，稱為「預測向前補貨（Forecast Forward Replenishment, FFR）」，藉由模擬分析的方法來驗證FFR比傳統的補貨策略能有更好的績效。
本研究績效評定不以單一績效作衡量，而採用同時考量存貨與服務水準兩者帶有trade-off特性的績效作為評定，以防偏頗單一績效情況下，導致另一績效嚴重低落。本研究處理這兩績效方式是以限制服務水準為特定目標的限制式下，最小化存貨量的作法，並且進一步找到補貨策略參數的最佳設置方式。最後本研究以真實歷史需求資料驗證，並證明使用預測向前補貨策略能比現況ROP所表現的績效更好。

圖目錄 v
表目錄 vii
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 3
1.3 研究方法與步驟 3
第二章 文獻回顧 5
2.1 相關文獻回顧 5
2.1.1 VMI/ SOI現況與現行補貨策略 5
2.1.2 影響補貨量因子文獻 11
2.2 文獻回顧小結 16
第三章 補貨策略問題 18
3.1 預測補貨簡介 18
3.1.1 情境現況分析 18
3.1.2 SOI / VMI介紹 21
3.2 滾動式預測 23
3.3 預測補貨問題 25
3.3.1 問題描述 25
3.3.2 問題假設 27
3.4 預測向前補貨邏輯與影響因子 28
3.4.1 預測向前補貨（Forecast Forward Replenishment）邏輯 28
3.4.2 影響績效因子 33
第四章 模擬模式分析與建構 38
4.1 模擬模式 38
4.1.1 離散事件模擬模式 39
4.1.2 模擬模式介面建構 50
4.2 模擬績效與量測 51
第五章 模擬實驗結果與分析 53
5.1 實驗設計結果與分析 53
5.1.1 分析實驗因子對於平均存貨的主效應與交互作用效應關係 57
5.1.2 分析實驗因子對於服務水準的主效應與交互作用效應關係 64
5.1.3 實驗小結 68
5.2 績效迴歸模型建構與求解 69
5.3 歷史需求驗證與現況比較 73
第六章 結論與建議 76
6.1 結論 76
6.2 建議 77
參考文獻 79
附錄一　存貨與服務水準績效資料驗證 86
附錄二　各需求型態下存貨與服務水準 ANOVA 91
附錄三　存貨與服務水準因子交互作用圖 97
附錄四　各需求型態下存貨與服務水準迴歸模型 101

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