我國能源供應結構屬於高度碳排放性質，國際減碳趨勢於近年來迅速崛起，乘著此浪潮我國政府陸續提出相關配套法規如：永續能源政策綱領、國家節能減碳總計畫等巨大政策，更將2010年訂為節能減碳年，可預見未來我國將會有更多再生能源與環境政策產生，相關配套措施推動勢必日益增加。有鑑於此，本研究針對行政區域再生能源政策提出一效益分析評估方法，行政區域導入再生能源政策將使得整個區域環境系統有變動影響，因此將該區域碳排放量納入考量；另一方面，政策成本亦為一大考量因素。因此，本研究採用系統動態學方法將再生能源政策建模，著手行政區域再生能源政策推動效益分析，期望透過此方法建置再生能源政策系統動態模型，並模擬出政策結果，以達到決策支援之功效。在案例研究部份，本研究選定建置澎湖低碳島專案計畫內的再生能源政策進行分析，由於近年來綠能產業於國內迅速崛起，太陽能產業亦為其中之一，該產業與TFT-LCD及半導體產業製程相近，目前為我國重點產業，因此本研究選定導入太陽能應用政策作為分析目標。建構再生能源政策太陽能應用系統動態模型，進行建置澎湖低碳島專案計畫中導入太陽能應用政策之效益分析，案例分四個情境，探討不同的政策情境下所造成的碳排放減量以及導入成本之影響，模擬結果顯示出逐年導入太陽能應用政策效果較佳，期望本研究所提出之方法可提供給相關單位決策者做為日後推動低碳島或低碳城市之政策評估參考依據。

Because the carbon reduction trends in the world and the energy supply structure is still in high degrees of carbon emission in Taiwan, the government proposed many regulations successively, such as “Frameworks of Sustainable Energy Policy - an Energy-Saving and Carbon-Reduction Action Plan’’ and “Master Plan of Energy Conservation and Carbon Mitigation”. Therefore, the carbon reduction issue in Taiwan must be promoted in the future. The above-mentioned description reveals that it needs to seek the renewable energy to reduce the high CO2 emissions situation in Taiwan. The related policies promote the development of solar energy industrial sector. The objective of this thesis is to develop a benefit evaluation for carbon reduction and cost of renewable energy policy for administrative region. This thesis adopts a system dynamics (SD) approach to constructing the renewable energy policy SD model to help decision makers to evaluate the renewable energy policy benefit. It analyzes the implemented costs required and related effects of the carbon emission in administrative region. In case implementation, this thesis simulates the solar energy applications in Penghu Low Carbon Island. The simulation of four policy options has been introduced in the case implementation. The result shows that the option of long-term adoption of solar energy applications is the best policy choice, because its carbon reduction benefit is higher than the other policy options. The approach and results of this research can be used for a reference to construct other administrative regions.

中文摘要 I
ABSTRACT II
一、 緒論 1
1.1 研究動機與背景 1
1.2 研究範圍與目的 2
1.3 研究步驟 3
1.4 研究限制 5
二、 文獻探討 6
2.1 溫室氣體減量趨勢 6
2.2 碳足跡與再生能源相關議題 10
2.3 太陽能產業 16
三、 研究工具與方法 19
3.1 系統動態學發展與應用範圍 19
3.2 系統動態學方法研究步驟 20
3.3 運用系統動態學評估行政區域再生能源政策效益 24
四、 案例研究 28
4.1 澎湖島碳排放量分析 28
4.2 系統動態模式建構：質性模式 32
4.3 系統動態模式建構：量化模式 35
五、 結論與建議 57

【1】 APEC, 2007, “Sydney APEC leaders' declaration on climate change, energy security and clean development,” Retrieved 29 December 2010 from http://www.apec.org/en/Meeting-Papers/Leaders-Declarations/2007/2007_aelm/aelm_climatechange.aspx
【2】 Biberacher, M., Gadocha, S. and Zocher, D., 2008, “GIS based model to optimize possible self sustaining regions in the context of a renewable energy supply,” Proceeding of the iEMSs Fourth Biennial meeting: International Congress on Environmental Modelling and software (iEMSs 2008), International Environmental Modelling and software Society, Barcelona, Catalonia, pp. 1306-1313.
【3】 Celiktas, M. S. and Kocar, G., 2009, “A quadratic helix approach to evaluate the Turkish renewable energies,” Energy Policy, Vol. 37, No. 11, pp. 4959-4965.
【4】 Chen, H. H. and Pang, C., 2010, “Organizational forms for knowledge management in photovoltaic solar energy industry,” Knowledge-Based Systems, Vol. 23, No. 8, pp. 924-933.
【5】 Coyle, R. G., 1996, System Dynamics Modelling – A Practical Approach, Chapman and Hall: New York.
【6】 Cranston, G. R. and Hammond, G. P., 2010, “North and south: Regional footprints on the transition pathway towards a low carbon, global economy,” Applied Energy, Vol. 87, No. 9, pp. 2945-2951.
【7】 D’Agosto, M. A. and Ribeiro, S. K., 2009, “Assessing total and renewable energy in Brazilian automotive fuels. A life cycle inventory (LCI) approach,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 13, No. 6-7, pp. 1326-1337.
【8】 Demiroren, A. and Yilmaz, U., 2010, “Analysis of change in electric energy cost with using renewable energy sources in Gökceada, Turkey: An island example,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 14, No. 1, pp. 323-333.
【9】 Forrester, J. W., 1961, Industrial Dynamics, MIT Press.
【10】 Gorden, G., 1978, System simulation, Prentice-Hall: New-Jersey.
【11】 Hoffmann, W., 2006, “PV solar electricity industry: Market growth and perspective,” Solar Energy Materials and Solar Cells, Vol. 90, No. 18-19, pp. 3285-3311.
【12】 Hwang, J. J., 2011, “Policy review of greenhouse gas emission reduction in Taiwan,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 15, No. 2, pp. 1392-1402.
【13】 IPCC, 2007, “IPCC Fourth assessment report (AR4),” Retrieved 29 December 2010 from http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm
【14】 IPCC, 2009, “Working group I fourth assessment report annexes,” IPCC working group I report, Retrieved 29 December 2010 from http://www.ipcc-wg1.unibe.ch/publications/wg1-ar4/ar4-wg1-annexes.pdf
【15】 ISO, 2006, ISO 14064-1: Specification with guidance at the organization level for quantification and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions and removals, International Organization for Standardization, Geneva.
【16】 Jaisankar, S., Ananth, J., Thulasi, S., Jayasuthakar, S. T. and Sheeba, K. N., 2011, “A comprehensive review on solar water heaters,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 15, No. 6, pp. 3045-3050.
【17】 Jaber, J. O., Jaber, Q. M., Sawalha, S. A. and Mohsen, M. S., 2008, “Evaluation of conventional and renewable energy sources for space heating in the household sector,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 278-289.
【18】 Lee, S. C. and Shin, L. H., 2011, “Enhancing renewable and sustainable energy development based on an options-based policy evaluation framework: Case study of wind energy technology in Taiwan,” Renewable Energy, Vol. 15, No. 5, pp. 2185-2198.
【19】 Liu, H. Y. and Wu, S. D., 2010, “An assessment on the planning and construction of an island renewable energy system – A case study of Kinmen Island,” Renewable Energy, Vol. 35, No. 12, pp. 2723-2731.
【20】 Nakata, T., Silva, D. and Rodionov, M., 2011, “Application of energy system models for designing a low-carbon society,” Progress in Energy and Combustion Science, Vol. 37, No. 4, pp. 462-502.
【21】 Oikonomou, E. K., Kilias, V., Goumas, A., Rigopoulos, A., Karakatsani, E., Damasiotis, M., Papastefanakis, D. and Marini, N., 2009, “Renewable energy sources (RES) projects and their barriers on a regional scale: The case study of wind parks in the Dodecanese islands, Greece,” Energy Policy, Vol. 37, No. 11, pp. 4874-4883.
【22】 Oikonomou, V., Flamos, A., Gargiulo, M., Giannakidis, G., Kanudia, A., Spijker, E. and Grafakos, S., 2011, “Linking least-cost energy system costs models with MCA: An assessment of the EU renewable energy targets and supporting policies,” Energy Policy, Vol. 39, No. 5, pp. 2786-2799.
【23】 Pękala, M. L., Tan, R. R., Foo, D. C. Y. and Jeżowski, J. M., 2010, “Optimal　energy　planning　models　with　carbon　footprint　constraints,” Applied Energy, Vol. 87, No. 6, pp. 1903-1910.
【24】 Reed, P., 2007, “ISO 14064 Environmental Standard,” Retrieved 28 December 2010 from http://www.irca.org/inform/issue15/ISO14064.html
【25】 Samsø Energy Academy, 2007, “Samsø – a Renewable Energy Island 10 years of Development and Evaluation,” Retrieved 20 February 2011 from http://www.energiakademiet.dk/images/imageupload/file/UK/RE-island/10year_energyrepport_UK.PDF
【26】 Smith, P. C., and Ackere, A. V., 2002, “A note on the integration of system dynamics and economic models,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 26, No. 1, pp. 1-10.
【27】 Srinivasan, S., 2007, “The Indian solar photovoltaic industry: a life cycle analysis,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 133-147.
【28】 Sterman, J. D., 1989, “Modeling managerial behavior misperceptions of feedback in a dynamic decision making experiment,” Management Science, vol. 35, No. 3, pp. 321-339.
【29】 Suryani, E., Chou, S. Y. and Chen, C. H., 2010, “Air passenger demand forecasting and passenger terminal capacity expansion: A system dynamics framework,” Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 37, No. 3, pp. 2324-2339.
【30】 Susman, G. I., 2008, “Evolution of the solar energy industry: Strategic groups and industry structure,” Proceeding of 2008 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET’08), Cape Town, South Africa, pp. 2489-2498.
【31】 Towill, D. R., 1996, “Industrial dynamics modeling of supply chains,” International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics, Vol. 26, No. 2, pp. 23-42.
【32】 Uemura, Y., Kai, T., Natori, R., Takahashi, T., Hatate, Y. and Yoshida, M., 2004, “Potential of renewable energy sources and its applications in Yakushima Island,” Renewable Energy, vol. 29, No. 4, pp. 581-591.
【33】 UNEP, 2000, “The Montreal Protocol on substances that deplete the ozone layer,” Retrieved 29 December 2010 from http://ozone.unep.org/pdfs/Montreal-Protocol2000.pdf
【34】 United Nations, 1992, United Nations framework convention on climate change, UNFCCC
【35】 United Nations, 1998, Kyoto protocol to the United Nations framework convention on climate change, UNFCCC.
【36】 Yim, N. H., Kim, S. H., Kim, H. W., and Kwahk, K. Y., 2004, “Knowledge based decision making on higher level strategic concerns: system dynamics approach,” Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 27, No. 1, pp. 143-158.
【37】 Wang, J., LU, H. and PENG, H., 2008, “System dynamics model of urban transportation system and its application,” Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, Vol. 8, No. 3, pp. 83-89.
【38】 Wang, T. and Watson, T., 2007, “Who owns China’s carbon emissions,” Tyndall Briefing Note, No. 23, pp. 1-7.
【39】 Wiedmann, T. and Minx, J., 2007, “A definition of carbon footprint,” ISAUK Research Report 07-01, pp. 1-9.
【40】 劉玉山，1977，系統動態學方法，文笙書局。
【41】 謝長宏，1980，系統動態學-理論、方法與應用，中興管理顧問公司。
【42】 陶在樸，1999，系統動態學，台北：五南圖書出版公司。
【43】 工業技術研究院，2007，全球太陽熱能產業發展，Retrieved 28 November 2010 from http://www.taiwangreenenergy.org.tw/files/Paper/200712823194.pdf
【44】 楊朝仲、張良正、葉欣誠、陳昶憲、葉昭憲，2007，系統動力學-思維與應用，五南圖書出版公司。
【45】 中華民國太平洋企業論壇簡訊，2007，「G8高峰會達成2050年溫室氣體排放減半協議」，中華民國太平洋企業論壇簡訊2007年6月號，頁1。
【46】 經濟部，2008，永續能源政策綱領，Retrieved 28 November 2010 from http://www.moeaboe.gov.tw/Download/Policy/files/%E6%B0%B8%E7%BA%8C%E8%83%BD%E6%BA%90%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%96%E7%B6%B1%E8%A6%81.pdf
【47】 王信福，2009，「建築用太陽能光電板饋電價格策略之研究」，指導教授：馮重偉，碩士論文，國立中央大學營運管理研究所。
【48】 王彬墀，2009，「資源回收再利用服務之碳物質流評量研究」，指導教授：李育明、陳秋楊，碩士論文，國立台北大學自然資源與環境管理研究所。
【49】 交通部觀光局，2009，中華民國97年國人旅遊狀況調查報告，Retrieved 28 November 2010 from http://library.tbroc.gov.tw/web/pdf/20090821111136.pdf。
【50】 張世杰，2009，「太陽能技術在建築物應用之研究」，指導教授：文一智，碩士論文，國立雲林科技大學營建與物業管理研究所。
【51】 張堡盛，2009，「以最小化生命週期成本為基礎之大型太陽能熱水器規劃模式」，指導教授：馮重偉，碩士論文，國立成功大學土木工程研究所。
【52】 簡肇成，2009，「BSI正式引進EN 16001歐盟能源管理系統標準」，BSI 台灣電子報，第68期，頁1-5。
【53】 張錦宗，2010，「運用EIO-LCA及系統動態模式探討產品碳足跡減量與成本分析」，指導教授：張瑞芬，碩士論文，國立台北科技大學工業工程與管理研究所。
【54】 李婉諦，2010，「國內產業能源管理系統發展現況」，綠基會通訊，第22期，頁11-13。
【55】 蕭志同、戴俞萱、柳淑芬，2010，決策分析與模擬，東華書局。
【56】 曾宣婷，2010，「國立成功大學節能績效指標之研究」，指導教授：陳家榮，碩士論文，國立成功大學資源工程研究所。
【57】 經濟部能源局，2010，建置澎湖低碳島專案計畫，Retrieved 28 November 2010 from http://www.moeaboe.gov.tw/Download/Policy/files/%E6%BE%8E%E6%B9%96%E4%BD%8E%E7%A2%B3%E5%B3%B6%E5%B0%88%E6%A1%88%E8%A8%88%E7%95%AB.pdf
【58】 經濟部能源局，2010，我國燃料燃燒CO 排放統計與分析，Retrieved 22 November 2010 from http://www.moeaboe.gov.tw/Download/Promote/greenhouse/files/%E6%88%91%E5%9C%8BCO2%E6%8E%92%E6%94%BE%E8%B6%A8%E5%8B%A2.pdf
【59】 經濟部能源局，2010，98年年報，Retrieved 30 November 2010 http://www.moeaboe.gov.tw/Download/Policy/files/%E8%83%BD%E6%BA%90%E5%B1%8098%E5%B9%B4%E5%A0%B1.pdf
【60】 經濟部能源局，2010，國家節能減碳總計畫，Retrieved 25 November 2010 from http://www.cepd.gov.tw/dn.aspx?uid=8769
【61】 熊自賢，2010，「台德中等教育英語師資供需系統之比較：系統動態模式」，指導教授：余曉雯、蕭志同，博士論文，國立暨南國際大學比較教育研究所。
【62】 經濟部能源局之中華民國台灣地區能源簡介無障礙網頁，2010，能源政策，Retrieved 30 November 2010 from http://web2.moeaboe.gov.tw/ecw/about/energy%20situation/main/ch_06.html
【63】 台灣綜合研究院，2010，國內能源政策，Retrieved 30 November 2010 from http://www.tri.org.tw/energy1/images/download/policy/internal_energy.doc
【64】 澎湖縣政府，2011，澎湖縣歷年人口數及戶數，Retrieved 22 April 2011 from http://www.penghu.gov.tw/chinese/01intro/03people.asp
【65】 澎湖國家風景區型資訊網，2011，觀光統計，Retrieved 23 April 2011 from http://www.penghu-nsa.gov.tw/gov/Article.aspx?Lang=1&SNo=04002724
【66】 BSI台灣，2011，Retrieved 1 May 2011 from http://www.bsigroup.tw
【67】 GHG Protocol Initiative, 2011, Retrieved 2 May 2011 from http://www.ghgprotocol.org
【68】 太陽光電資訊網，2011，Retrieved 11 April 2011 from http://solarpv.itri.org.tw
【69】 中央氣象局，2011，Retrieved 20 February 2011 from http://www.cwb.gov.tw
【70】 經濟部網站，2011，Retrieved 15 May 2011 from http://www.moea.gov.tw
【71】 經濟部能源局網站，2011，Retrieved 7 March 2011 from http://www.moeaboe.gov.tw