文針對亞洲九個國家的外匯市場進行利差交易的風險溢酬研究，試圖找出風險溢酬的證據並分析影響風險溢酬波動的原因。並將風險溢酬波動分為長波動因子以及短波動因子，進而分析哪個因子對風險溢酬波動影響較大以及分別又是那些變數影響長短波動因子的變化。
為了使研究結果更加顯著，在估計未拋補平價理論是否成立時在估計式中加入國家風險的因子，且成功使估計結果更顯著。研究結果顯示八個國家的外匯市場皆存在風險溢酬且長波動因子較短波動因子影響風險溢酬波動程度大。其中影響長波動因子的變數有基本面變數以及國家風險的變化；影響短波動因子的原因是市場的信心波動以及一些流動性的問題。

This paper studies risk premium of carry trade in the foreign exchange markets of nine Asian countries, attempting to find the evidence of the existence of risk premiums and analyzing the reasons of volatility in risk premium. The risk premium volatility is divided into long-term volatility factors and short-term volatility factors, and then it is analyzed which factors have a greater impact on the risk premium volatility and those variables affect the long and short volatility factors.
To make the results more significant, this paper put the country risk factor in the estimator of Uncovered Interest Rate Parity(UIP) and the estimated result is successfully being more significant. The results show that there are risk premiums in the foreign exchange markets of all eight countries and that long-term volatility factors have more effects on the volatility of risk premiums than short-term volatility factors. The variables affecting long-term volatility factors are fundamental variables and changes in country risks; the reasons for short-term volatility factors are market confidence fluctuations and some liquidity problems.

目錄
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與研究動機 1
第二節 研究目的 2
第二章 文獻探討 3
第一節 風險溢酬 3
第二節 Component GARCH-M 模型 5
第三章 研究方法 7
第一節 未拋補利率平價說(Uncovered Interest Rate Parity) 7
第二節 CGARCH-M 模型 9
第三節 分析風險溢酬波動度因子 10
第四章 研究資料 12
第一節 資料概述 12
第二節 資料分析 13
第五章 實證結果 19
第一節 外匯風險溢酬 19
第二節 影響風險溢酬波動度因子分析 24
第六章 結論 29
參考文獻 31

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