亞洲區域500mb環流型式與環流指標之分析及ARIMA預報法之初步嘗試

A Preliminary Study on the Objective Analysis and Forecasting for Asian 500 mb Level Circulation Patterns and Circulation Indeces

玉時鼎(Shih-Ting Wang)

《大氣科學》 3卷1期 (1976/05) Pp. 39-54

摘要

本研究中，三種統計方法，即：調和分析，波譜分析，及自相關－移動平均模式經加應用。調和分析技術係用於亞洲「區域環流指標」兩次顯著由高轉低期間500 mb層上各波動分量之特性與動態研究。波譜分析係用以認定亞洲「區域環流指標」變化之盛行週期。互波譜分析技術亦經予以應用，以分析各緯度帶間環流指標變化之相互關係。另外，自相關－移動平均模式係用於與亞洲區域高空環流型式具有密切關係之「區域環流指標」變化之預測。上述各種方法之結果，經已給出。

並列摘要

In this study three statistical methods are employed. These include harmonic analyses, spectral analysis, and the ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) model. Harmonic analysis is used for the study of properties and behaviors of upper wave componts during the periods of prominant high to low change in the Asian sector circulation index (S. C. I). The spectal method is used for identification of preferred periods of the S. C. I. cycles. The cross-spectrum analysis is also applied to the S. C. I. in different latitude zones. The ARIMA model is used for predicting the change of the S. C. I. which bears close relationship to the Asian upper air circulation patterns. The results from these three methods are given.