土石流發生機率分析－以花蓮縣銅門村及東興部落為應用對象

本文以機率觀點探討山坡地水文特性及地文特性與土石流發生條件之關聯性。以山坡地鬆散堆積土層之水位代表水文特性：以土層厚度、土層坡度、土層比重、土層內土壤之體積濃度、土壤凝聚力及土壤摩擦角等六個參數來代表地文特性。以花蓮縣銅門村及東興部落之土石流發生地爲例，依據這些水文及地文參數之不確定性，分別以一階二級動差法（FOSM法）及蒙地卡羅模擬法（MCSM法），分析此二地區在不同土石流發生機率下之土石流發生條件。

關鍵字

土石流；發生條件；發生機率；不確定性

並列摘要

The relationship of debris-flow occurrence criteria with geological and hydrologic parameters was developed, basing on a probabilistic concept in this paper. The geological parameters include the thickness of sediment layer, the slope angle of the channel, the specific gravity of unsaturated soil, the concentration of saturated soil, and the cohesion and the friction angle of soil. The water level was treated as a hydrologic parameter. The method proposed in this paper was applied to analyze the occurrence probability of debris flow in the Tungshing and Tounmen villages, Hualien. According to the uncertainties of geological and hydrologic parameters in these two villages, the probabilities of debris-flow occurrence at different water levels. were evaluated with the first-order second-moment method (FOSM) and the Monte-Carlo simulation method(MCSM), respectively.

並列關鍵字

debris flow ； occurrence criteria ； occurrence probability ； uncertainty

被引用紀錄

林暘壹（2013）。角埔溪土石流流動模擬研究〔碩士論文，國立成功大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0026-0006202200000102

延伸閱讀

謝正倫、江志浩、陳禮仁（1992）。花東兩縣土石流現場調查與分析。中華水土保持學報，23(2)，109-122。https://doi.org/10.29417/JCSWC.199211_23(2).0010
范正成、王聖岑（1998）。利用定量模型推估花蓮縣銅門村土石流發生處之尖峰逕流量。台灣水利，46(2)，1-11。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=P20220602001-199806-202211110002-202211110002-1-11
吳仁明、董家鈞、游繁結、夏龍源、連惠邦（2006）。土石流可能災害型態與影響範圍評估方法及案例探討。中華水土保持學報，37(1)，55-64。https://doi.org/10.29417/JCSWC.200603_37(1).0006
劉格非、黃名村（2002）。土石流之現場數值模擬－應用於南投縣神木村。中華水土保持學報，33(3)，215-221。https://doi.org/10.29417/JCSWC.200209_33(3).0005
Huang, Y. M., Fang, Y. M., Chou, T. Y., Lee, C. Y., & Yin, H. Y. (2017). The Vibration Signal Analysis of Debris Flow in Taiwan. In 中華民國大地工程學會 & Ainosco Press (Eds.), Geotechnical hazard mitigations: experiment, theory and practice—proceedings of the 5th international conference on geotechnical engineering for disaster mitigation and rehabilitation (pp. 149-161). 中華民國大地工程學會; Ainosco Press. https://doi.org/10.6140/9789864371419.201710.0013

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土石流發生機率分析－以花蓮縣銅門村及東興部落為應用對象

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