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Advantages and Limitations of President Ma's Cross-Strait Negotiation: CECA/ECFA as an Example

馬英九總統兩岸談判的優勢與限制:以CECA/ECFA為例

摘要


在有關「衝突策略」的討論中,Thomas Schelling指出,假如正在進行國際談判的執政者,刻意地運用其在國內所受的限制,那麼在對外談判中會有較大籌碼。類似的觀點也在Robert Putnam的「雙層賽局模型」中提出。這一模型認為,當一國內部的贏方和國際上的對手打交道時,此種外交談判的情境就會出現。Putnam也指出,當一國內的贏方相對上沒那麼強勢時,在對外談判的過程中反而會有好處。這篇論文以雙層賽局模型以及Schelling的觀點作為分析架構,檢視馬英九總統就CECA或ECFA和北京的協商過程。本文發現了若干個尚未被雙層賽局模型檢驗過的潛在預設。這些發現可以幫助我們暸解,馬英九總統和北京進行CECA或ECFA協商策略的成功之處與限制所在,同時也有助於審視雙層賽局理論模型本身。

並列摘要


In the ”Strategy of Conflict”, Schelling conjectured that if an executive intentionally ties hi s or her hands with domestic constraints, he or she may gain greater leverage in international bargaining. A similar point has also been raised by Robert Putnam with his ”two-level game model”. This model argues that such a diplomatic bargain can be reached when domestic win-set intersects with the international one. Putnam also argues that when a domestic win-set is small, it can be a bargaining advantage for the negotiator. This paper intends to re view President Ma Ying-Jeou's bargaining process with Beijing on the Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Arrangement (CECA) or Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with the analytic framework of two-level game and the Schelling Conjecture. This paper finds some implicit assumptions that are not well examined by the two-level game model. These findings may help us understand the success and limitations of President Ma's negotiation strategy with Beijing on CECA/ECFA, and also help us review the theoretical model of the two-level game.

並列關鍵字

ECFA Cross-Strait Relations Ma Ying-Jeo

參考文獻


Ruggie, J. G.(Ed.)(1993).Multilateralism Matters: The Theory and Practice of an Institutional Form.New York:Columbia University Press.
Iida, Keisuke(1993).When and How Do Domestic Constraints Matter? Two-Level Games with Uncertainty.Journal of Conflict Resolution.37(3),403-426.
Milner, Helen,Rosendorff, B. P.(1997).Democratic Politics and International Trade Negotiations: Elections and Divided Government as Constraints on Trade Liberalization.Journal of Conflict Resolution.41,117-146.
Mo, Jongryn(1994).The Logic of Two-Level Games with Endogenous Domestic Coalitions.Journal of Conflicts Resolution.38,402-422.
Mo, Jongryn(1995).The Choice of Domestic Bargaining Regime in Two-Level Games: The Use of Agent Veto.American Political Science Review.89,914-924.

被引用紀錄


王立賢(2013)。從兩階段談判結構探究ECFA之博奕過程〔碩士論文,國立臺北大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0023-1706201310105300

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