考慮公司治理之企業財務危機預警模型

The Financial Distress Model Considering Corporate Governance

林郁翎(Yu-Ling Lin) ； 黃建華(Chien-Hua Huang)

《東吳經濟商學學報》 64期 (2009/03) Pp. 23-55

https://doi.org/10.29735/SJEB.200903.0002

摘要

由於亞洲企業多為家族及集團經營，且企業之財務報表數字常會透過不同的方法進行窗飾，藉此美化報表上資料，因而大幅地降低傳統僅考慮財務變數資料所建構之財務危機預警模型的預測效力，故本文研究目的即在於將公司治理層面變數納入財務危機預警模型建構之中，利用二元Logit分析法，先以逐步迴歸法選取變數，再據而建構出三個不同之模型，分別為；僅考慮財務變數之模型、僅考慮公司治理變數之模型、同時考慮財務變數與公司治理變數之綜合模型，並比較其預測能力。實證結果顯示，單純考慮財務變數所建構之模型雖有不錯的預測能力，但若是能再加入公司治理變數所建構之綜合模型將會有更佳的預測財務危機發生效果。

關鍵字

公司治理 ； 財務危機預警模型 ； Logit模型

並列摘要

Due to most of the enterprises in Asia are invested by bloc or family, and some Company's financial statements were window dressed through specific methods, the financial statements can be beautified, and this would reduce the exactness of prediction accuracy ratio of financial distress model considering only financial data. The purpose of this study is to establish the financial distress model considering the variables about corporate governance. Adopting binary Logit regression method and using stepwise regression method to determine the variables. We build up three models, the model only considering financial variables, the model only considering corporate governance variables, and the model considering financial variables and corporate governance variables respectively. Then, the comparisons of these models' predictable ability were made. The study exhibited the model having the variables of corporate governance will increase the model's performance.

並列關鍵字

Corporate Governance ； Financial Distress Model ； Logit Model

參考文獻

沈中華、陳錦村、吳孟紋(2005)。更早期預警模型：台灣銀行道德指標的建立及影響。管理學報。22(1)，1-28。

林金賢、陳育成、劉沂佩、鄭育書(2004)。具學習性之模糊專家系統在財務危機預測上之應用。管理學報。21(3)，291-309。

Altman, E.(1968).Financial Ratios, Discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy.Journal of Finance.23(4),589-609.

Atiya, A. F.(2001).Bankruptcy Prediction for Credit Risk Using Neural Networks: A Survey and New Results.IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks.12(4),929-935.

Basel Committee on Banking Supervision(2005).Studies on the Validation of Internal Rating Systems.(Working Paper).