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臺灣天然災害統計指標體系建構與分析

The Development and Analysis on Natural Disaster Statistics Index System in Taiwan

摘要


近年來,臺灣地區天然災害發生次數日益頻繁,對於生命、財產、生活安全皆造成不少的衝擊與損失,因此,推動有效的災害管理政策來降低人員傷亡與災害損失,是目前各級政府面臨的重大課題。災害統計資訊是各類型防救災計畫的基礎,然而過去災害統計受限於制度上的設計,未能反映當今多元且複合的災害特性,致使災害管理政策不能反應各地區之脆弱度(vulnerability)。 本研究首先透過相關災害統計指標之文獻回顧,探討評估指標篩選與建立,接著利用「脆弱度」、「災害損失」與「災害管理」三個面向,擬出臺灣天然災害統計指標之架構,並建立指標構面及項目。其次透過模糊德爾菲法(Fuzzy Delphi Method)整合專家學者之意見,並篩選出指標因子包括3大評估標的、11項評估面向以及27項評估指標;爾後操作模糊層級分析法(Fuzzy Analytic Hierachy Process),計算評估指標之權重與排序;進而將權重值賦予經指數化之各項評估指標,最後利用綜合指數的方式進行各縣市之分析。實証結果顯示,全臺「災害統計指數」最高的縣市爲花蓮縣,此外,「脆弱度指數」最高的縣市爲臺東縣;新竹縣則是「災害損失」指數最高的地區,而臺北縣的「災害管理」指數爲全臺之冠。 本研究所建立之指標體系,可提供地區了解其災害的時空特性、損害、衝擊與災害管理能力,並透過各項評估指標項目的比較,期能作爲未來中央與地方在強化防救災業務以及分配防救災資源時之參考依據。

並列摘要


In recent year, more natural disasters have happened in Taiwan causing deaths and property losses. Thus, how to promote appropriate hazards reduction policies becomes an important issue at different levels of governments. Hazards and disasters related statistics provide the basic information for hazards planning. However, due to the design of past disaster management mechanism, the current statistics cannot reflect the complicated and compounded characteristics of disasters. This also lead to the current policies that do not emphasize on local vulnerabilities. This research uses the concepts of ”disaster management”, ”vulnerability” and ”disaster damage” from the literature review to preliminarily identify the structure of ”Natural Disaster Statistics Index System” (NDSIS). Then, this research uses the Fuzzy Delphi method to gather the opinions from experts and scholars, and refines the system which includes 3 aspects, 11 items, and 27 indexes. This research uses Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process to count the values of the indexes and then weights and applies the NDSIS to analyze the current situation at the county level in Taiwan. The NDSIS can assist the county governments in understanding the spatial characteristics of disaster impacts and their vulnerabilities/capacities for disasters. By comparing of these indexes, the system can also be the important references for central and local governments to enhance future disaster management tasks.

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