清代上海地區氣候與天氣特徵之重建

本研究分析中國歷史文獻中關於天氣現象之描述，重建清代（西元1644－1911年）上海地區的氣候狀況，包括乾濕序列與溫度序列之時間分布、颱風、冰雹、雷暴、龍捲風與潮溢等特殊天氣現象之時空分布，以及氣象因子的相關。平均及極端乾濕二種逐年序列皆顯示，在1644－1730年代乾濕交替較為劇烈，而從1740年代以後，則是偏濕型態。冬溫及夏溫的十年期序列皆呈現清代前後各有一個約五十年的冷期，中間為一百五十年的相對暖期。清代268年期間沒有明顯的增溫趨勢。夏季溫度與極端降水的十年期資料有顯著負相關，表示極端降水較多時，夏溫較低，溫濕呈現是不同步的變化。颱風、冰雹、雷暴、龍捲風及潮溢發生次數，平均10年有2.5、2.3、3.6、1.8及3.6次，雷暴及潮溢並列第一。五十年累積次數顯示，颱風侵襲上海次數以清代中期較多，清初及清末較少；相反地，冰雹、雷暴及龍捲風發生次數以清初及清末較多，清代中期明顯偏少；潮溢次數以清初的50年最多，爾後兩百年逐漸減少。在空間分布方面，颱風發生次數以東南及西北部最多，冰雹、雷暴及龍捲風分布型態類似，發生次數以中部西北部較多，這些可能與位於沿河海區及區域開發程度較高有關；潮溢發生次數則以沿河海區及離島縣市最多，表示深受河川水位及海潮的影響。溫濕及特殊天氣發生次數的相關分析顯示，颱風對全年的平均及極端降水皆有貢獻，全年及冬季的雷暴較多時，全年及冬季的平均降水會較多，而夏溫會較低及潮溢發生次數會較多。特殊天氣現象的時空相關顯示，若有颱風及龍捲風侵襲，易發生潮溢現象。冰雹、雷暴及龍捲風也常相伴發生，可能是這些特殊天氣皆與強烈對流系統與大尺度不穩定大氣有關。

關鍵字

氣溫；降水；劇烈天氣；颱風；龍捲風

並列摘要

This investigation attempts to reconstruct the climate of the Shanghai area during the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) through analysis of the weather descriptions in the historical documents. Specifically, this study examines temporal variations in temperature and precipitation, spatio-temporal variations in special weather events, such as typhoons, hail, thunderstorms, tornados and floods, and associations between meteorological parameters.The average and extreme dry-wet indexes show frequent dry or wet changes during 1644-1730, and mostly wet changes subsequent to 1740. Decadal winter and summer temperature indexes show that the Shanghai area was colder during first and last fifty year periods of the Qing Dynasty than during the middle 150 years. However, the study period is free of any warming trend. Summer temperature is significantly and negatively related with extreme rainfall based on decadal data, implying higher extreme rainfall and then lower summer temperature with non-synochronous changes.The frequencies of typhoons, hail, thunderstorms, tornados and flooding are 2.5, 2.3, 3.6, 1.8 and 3.6 events per decade, respectively. Thunderstorms and flooding have the highest frequency among the special weathers. Fifty-year statistics demonstrate that more typhoons impact Shanghai during the middle period, and that there are fewer during the initial and final periods. Meanwhile, hail, thunderstorms and tornados are more frequent during the initial and final periods than during the middle period, while floods are more frequent during the initial period and less frequent during the middle and final periods. The spatial distribution of event frequency shows that typhoons are more frequent in the southeast and northwest. Hail, thunder and tornados exhibit a similar pattern, and are more frequent in the central and northwest areas. This spatial distribution could be attributed to these areas being close to the sea and the river, and also being more urbanized. Flooding is more frequent in the coastal and river counties or on isolated islands, due to the effects of river and sea levels.Associations between temperature, precipitation and special weathers show that typhoons contribute to average and extreme precipitation. More thunderstorms during the whole year or in the winter contribute to average precipitation throughout the year or in the winter, and to more frequent flooding, or lower temperatures in summer.The incidence of flooding may increase with those of typhoons and tornados. Severe convective systems and large-scale atmospheric instability may cause strong associations between hail, thunderstorms, and tornados.

並列關鍵字

Temperature ； precipitation ； severe weather ； typhoon ； tornado

參考文獻

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國際替代計量

清代上海地區氣候與天氣特徵之重建

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