海洋大陸地區的降雨週期分析－以馬來半島為例（1971－2007）

An Analysis of Rainfall Periodicity of Maritime Continent: A Case Study in Peninsular Malaysia (1971-2007)

黃燕儀(Yuen-Yi Ng)

《地理學報》 71期 (2013/12) Pp. 93-111

https://doi.org/10.6161/jgs.2013.71.05

摘要

本研究使用馬來西亞水利灌溉局（Department of Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia）十個氣象測站的降雨資料，時序從1971年1月至2007年12月共37年的月降雨資料進行長期趨勢分析，並以小波時頻分析法探討此區的降雨週期變化。研究結果顯示：（1）馬來半島地區的降雨主要是由東向西，由中南部向北遞減；（2）此區的降雨型態可分為單峰型與雙峰型兩類，單峰型降雨主要分布在東部地區，降雨的高峰季節集中在秋冬季；雙峰型降雨則分布在半島西部地區，以中南部地區最為顯著，降雨高峰季節主要分布在春季及秋季，而半島西部的雙峰型季節降雨，由中南部地區往北逐漸消失雙峰特性；（3）大部份測站皆存在2－2.5年、3年、4－6年、9－12年及18年的降水週期訊號，其中2－2.5年及4－6年的降雨訊號，可推斷為TBO（Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation）及ENSO（El Niño Southern Oscillation）事件的週期訊號；（4）其次，馬來半島地區的降雨在十年（9－12年）和年代際（18年）尺度上的週期訊號，推論與太陽黑子數的變化具有微妙關聯。

關鍵字

小波分析 ； 季節降雨 ； 時間序列

並列摘要

A total of 10 rainfall stations data used in this study were provided by Department of Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia. The monthly rainfall data spans a period of 37 years from January 1971 to December 2007. The aim of this study is to investigate the trend and the variability of rainfall periodicity in Peninsular Malaysia using wavelets analysis. The results showed that: (1) rainfall of Peninsular Malaysia gradually decreased from eastern to western part and from mid-southern to northern part. (2) The rainfall pattern in Peninsular Malaysia was divided into two patterns, which were unimodal and bimodal. The unimodal pattern of rainfall was mainly applicable to the eastern part during the autumn and the winter, while the bimodal pattern was observed in the western part, particularly the mid-southern part during the spring and the autumn. Nevertheless, the characteristic of bimodal pattern was gradually diminished from mid-southern to northern Peninsular Malaysia. (3) The periodic patterns of 2-2.5-year, 3-year, 4-6-year, 9-12-year and 18-year were found in most of the rainfall stations. The periodic patterns of 2-2.5-year and 4-6-year were suggested to be contributed by the TBO (Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation) and ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) events. Furthermore, (4) the periodic patterns of the rainfall in decadal (9-12-year) and interdecadal (18-year) scales in Peninsular Malaysia seems to correlate with the change of the sunspot number.

並列關鍵字

Wavelets analysis ； seasonal rainfall ； time series

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