氣候變遷下21世紀末冬半年臺灣降水推估

Projection of Future Winter Rainfall in Taiwan during the Last Quarter of the 21st Century

林和駿(Ho-Jiunn Lin) ； 洪致文(Chih-wen Hung)

《地理學報》 87期 (2017/12) Pp. 21-38

https://doi.org/10.6161/jgs.2017.87.02

摘要

本研究利用第五期耦合模式比對計畫(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, CMIP5)的模式資料來推估未來世紀末(2075-2099年)臺灣冬半年(11月至隔年4月)降雨變化，結果發現21世紀末降雨將會比過去(1979-2003年)少。研究設計上，本研究利用臺灣冬半年降雨與環流場及水氣輻合的關係來推估，而非直接使用CMIP5模式或其他降尺度的模式降雨數據。從過去的歷史觀測資料分析中得知，臺灣冬季(11月至隔年1月)及春季(2月至4月)降雨與臺灣附近的水氣輻合成正比。比較CMIP5模式中過去與未來世紀末時期水氣輻散場的變化，發現臺灣附近水氣輻合在未來世紀末有減少的現象。因此，21世紀末臺灣地區的冬半年降雨，很有可能比過去還要少。

關鍵字

冬半年降水 ； 臺灣未來降水推估 ； CMIP5 ； 水氣輻合 ； 臺灣氣候變遷

並列摘要

This study reveals that the winter-half (November to April) rainfall in Taiwan will be fewer in the future (2075-2099) with the projection of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models in the worst-global-warming representative concentration pathway at 8.5W/m^2 (RCP8.5). The estimation does not simply use the precipitation output of the CMIP5 models nor any downscaling models, but rather adopts a conceptual model that represents the relationships between the winter-half Taiwan rainfall and the circulation along with water vapor convergence. In the historical observational data (1979-2003), both winter (November to January) and spring (February to April) rainfalls in Taiwan are highly correlated with moisture convergence near Taiwan. This study finds that moisture convergence will be weaker in the future (2075-2099). Therefore, the Taiwan rainfall in the future (2075-2099) will probably be possibly less than that in the historical time (1979-2003) according to the CMIP5 modes projection under the RCP8.5 scenario of global warming.

並列關鍵字

winter precipitation ； projection of future Taiwan rainfall ； CMIP5 ； moisture convergence ； climate change in Taiwan

參考文獻

洪致文(2012)。臺灣降雨指數（TRI）的建立與其分析應用。地理學報。67，73-96。

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