臺灣地區木材供需關係之分析

An Analysis of the Timber Supply and Demand Situation in Taiwan

張森(Joseph S. Chang) ； 任憶安(I-An Jen)

《林業試驗所研究報告季刊》 1卷2期 (1986/12) Pp. 81-137

https://doi.org/10.7075/BTFRI.198612.0081

摘要

本研究之目的在於建立臺灣地區木材供需關係之計量經濟模式，為求模式發展之便利，將臺灣地區木材供需關係，劃分為紙類部分及木材類部分，木材類部分再細分為木製品工業部分及針濶葉樹材市場部分。透過偶對理論(Duality Theory)以Cobb-Douglas生產方程式為出發點，應用其相對應之利潤方程式及成本方程式，導出各產品之供應方程式及原料之需求方程式，從而建立一非線性之計量經濟模式。分析結果顯示，紙類方面之重要結論為：紙類生產不具規模經濟，單位生產成本不隨產量之增加而降低，紙類生產量不受紙類價格之影響，而紙類之消費量及進口量皆為有所得彈性之奢侈品，而無價格彈性。木製品工業方面，木製家具出口成長已經轉緩，在此方面之投資，以審慎為宜，合板工業具有明顯之規模經濟，隨著合板工業規模之逐漸減小，自產合板與進口合板之價格差異將逐漸擴大，針濶葉樹材方面，針濶葉樹原木之生產量均不具價格彈性，市場價格完全取決定於市場需求方面，新林業政策實施後針葉樹原木生產量每年平均減少15%，而濶葉樹原木生產量則減少25%，顯見林務機關於新林業政策實施後對針葉樹之資源倚賴益深。

並列摘要

This paper reports the development of an econometric model of the timber supply and demand for Taiwan. In order to facilitate the development of the model, the timber supply and demand for Taiwan were divided into two sectors-the paper sector and the solid wood sector. The solid wood sector was further divided into 1. the solid wood product industries and 2. the softwood and hardwood markets. Through the use of the duality theory, the profit and cost functions correspondent with the Cobb-Douglas production function was used to derive the output supply function and factor input demand function. These functions were then used to build a non-linear econometric model. Major findings of the paper sector include that paper industry does not possess scale economy. Production cost per ton, therefore, will not decrease as production increases. Paper price does not affect the production of paper. Both paper consumption and paper import are income elastic and price inelastic. For the wood product industries, the rapid growth phase in the export of wood furniture is over. More cautious approach to the investment in this industry is recommended. Plywood industry possesses significant economy of scale. As the plywood insturdy gradually reduces its size, the price differential between the domestically produced and imported plywood would increase. For the softwood and hardwood markets, both softwood and hardwood production are price inelastic. Market prices are decided almost entirely by the demand side. Since the implementation of the new forest policy, the production of the softwood was reduced 15% and the production of the hardwood was reduced 25%. Apparently, the forestry agencies are more than ever before relying on the softwood resources.