美國Ohio州橡木原木價格分析

An Analysis of Red Oak Log Price in the Ohio State of U.S.A.

陳麗琴(Lih-Chin Chen)

《林業試驗所研究報告季刊》 6卷3期 (1991/09) Pp. 299-305

https://doi.org/10.7075/BTFRI.199109.0299

摘要

臺灣是高度依賴木材進口的國家，橡木是臺灣進口美材重要樹種之一，因此美國本土木材價格變動值得廠商加以注意，以利選購。本研究以Ohio州橡木原木市價為對象，應用SAS/ETS (Strategic Application system/Economics and Time Series)計量經濟統計軟體PROC FORECAST程式，分析自1975年至1989年之各品等包括一等(l6″)、一等、二等與三等原木價格之變動及預測未來二年可能之價格，結果顯示就平減資料長期趨勢而言，品等愈高，成長率也愈大，前三品等分別以每年3.8%, 3.4%, 1.6%成長，而三等原木市價則成負成長-1.4%，市價循環週期約為八年，預期1991年為低谷期。1991年秋季各品等市價預測為US$529、372、202及98元／千板呎。

關鍵字

美國橡木 ； 原木市價 ； 時間序列

並列摘要

Taiwan forest product industry depends heavily on import logs. Recently red oak has become one of the most important import logs. Consequently, the price trend in the U.S. has strong influence on the industry. Using the SAS/ETS, PROC FORECAST procedure, the red oak log price of 4 Grades including Grade 1 (16″), Grade 1, Grade 2 and Grade 3 from 1975-1989 are analyzed, and the price can be described as a linear model; and the better the grades, the higher the increase rate of the price. For the first 3 grades, the increase rate are 3.8%, 3.4% & 1.6%, respectively, during the studied period, while for the grade 3, the rate is -1.4%. The future prices for the four grades in the fall of 1991 are expected to be US$ 529、 372、 202 & 98/thousand board feet respectively.

並列關鍵字

Red oak ； Log price ； Time series