決策過程中決策策略的權變運用：電腦模擬

The Study of Contingent Decision Strategies Used in Decision Process: A Computer Simulation Approach

林正昌(Cheng-Chang Lin) ； 林清山(Chen-Shan Lin) ； 金樹人(Shuh-Ren Jin)

《教育心理學報》 36卷2期 (2004/12) Pp. 127-144

https://doi.org/10.6251/BEP.20040903

摘要

本研究的目的在探討決策者如何權變性地運用決策策略來解決決策問題。本研究乃以「心力／精確性」交換模式為理論架構，採用條件語句系統建構各種決策策略的心理運作模型，並以初級訊息處理和相對精確性的觀點，做為心力與精確性的測量指標。使用電腦模擬的方法加以比較各策略在不同決策作業情境下，心力與精確性交換的情形。模擬結果指出：在耗用較少的心力和獲取較高的精確性的權衡考量下，沒有單一策略在所有的情境都表現得很好，亦即沒有任何一種策略適用於所有的決策作業情境。值得注意的是，在時間壓力高且決策作業變大的情境下，使用一些捷思策略來解決決策問題，所得的精確性高於使用規範性的策略所得到的精確性。因此，在心力與精確性交換的情形下，決策者會依據作業情境的變化，進而權變地運用決策策略來解決決策問題。

關鍵字

決策 ； 捷思策略 ； 電腦模擬 ； 權變性

並列摘要

The purpose of this study was to explore how the individual contingently uses decision strategies to solve the decision-makeing problems. In the study, the effort/accuracy tradeoff model was used as the framework, and the production system was used to model the mental processes of decision-makeing strategies. The concepts of elementary information processing (EIP) and relative accuracy (RA) were also used to measure the effort and accuracy in the decision-makeing process. A computer simulation was undertaken to compare different strategies of effort and accuracy in various decision environments. The results suggest that no single strategy did well across all task and context conditions in terms of saving effort and gaining high accuracy. The findings indicate that under the higher time pressure and larger task size condition, several heuristic strategies were more accurate than the truncated normative strategy. Therefore, in terms of effort and accuracy tradeoff, decision-makers use a variety of strategies contingent upon a number of task and context variables.

並列關鍵字

contingency ； computer simulation ； decision making ； heuristics

參考文獻

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