世紀之交中共的軍事政策與亞太安全：防禦取向模糊性的探討

Mainland China's Military Policy and Asian-Pacific Security: A Critique of Defensive Orientation

張雅君(Ya-Chün Chang)

《中國大陸研究》 42卷3期 (1999/03) Pp. 25-44

https://doi.org/10.30389/MCS.199903_42(3).0003

摘要

冷戰結束後，中共在戰略上進一步從內陸走向海洋，並繼續推動軍事現代化，同時強調「高技術條件下局部戰爭」的戰略，此種態勢明顯導至美國及亞太國家的不安，致使中國威脅論聲浪高漲，因而中共在冷戰結束後仍面對了來自美國、日本和印度的潛在威脅。為袪除亞太國家的安全疑慮，中共在一九九五年後不斷強調國防政策是防禦屬性，企圖為其軍事行為，以及軍事現代化發展一個明確界定，以扭轉負面的國際形象，並防止美國及周邊國家制定不利於中共的戰略或政策。然而，中共積極防禦軍事戰略本身是攻守結合的，高技術條件局部戰爭理論又蘊含了更大的積極威懾成分；此外，中共軍事現代化的步調固然是漸進性的，但中共把有限的國防資源選擇性的集中於部分項目的強化，諸如導彈技術，資訊戰爭技術等方面，使得中共軍事現代化明顯呈現了攻勢性和威懾性，尤其是對台海，這也導致中共軍事政策在攻勢和防禦性之間仍呈現了模糊性，美國及亞太國家對中共的疑慮因此難以消弭，更思圖反制中共，世紀之交亞太安全的發展因此仍呈現潛在的圍堵的對抗陰影。

關鍵字

防禦性軍事政策 ； 攻勢性軍事政策 ； 亞太安全 ； 積極防禦 ； 中共威脅論 ； 螺旋模式政策 ； 貪婪國家 ； 高技術條件下局部戰爭

並列摘要

After the end of the cold war, Mainland China has further developed her security, including emphasis on becoming a maritime power, and has continued to advance military modernization with the emphasis of ”local war under high-tech conditions.” This policy orientation apparently creates misgivings for the United States and East Asian countries, leading to the increase of the China threat perception. Therefore, China still faces severely potential threats from the U.S., Japan and India at the turn of the century. Since 1995, China has continually stressed that its security policy is defensive in nature in order to improve international reputations and prevent formulating anti-China policy other countries might do. However, the active defense military strategy that China emphasizes can also be viewed as offensive. Moreover, her doctrine of local war under high-tech conditions contains more elements of active deterrence in fact. Additionally, in spite of stressing the pace of incremental development in military modernization, China has concentrated defense resources on selectively strategic items, such as missile technology and information warfare. This ambiguity between offensive and active military strategy necessarily makes it difficult for the U.S. and neighboring countries to not to be concern about Chinese military threat. The current trends of Asian security, therefore, still mirrors containment and anti-containment situations that existed in the cold war period.

並列關鍵字

defensive military policy ； offensive military policy ； Asian-Pacific security ； active defense ； China threat ； Spiral model ； deterrence model ； greedy state ； local war under high-tech condition

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