「特殊國與國關係」之決策及其發展：3i模型的決策分析

Taiwan' China Policy Decision Making: “he Special State-to-state Relationship” and the “3i Decision-making Model”

宋學文(Hseik-Wen Soong)

《中國大陸研究》 42卷11期 (1999/11) Pp. 67-92

https://doi.org/10.30389/MCS.199911_42(11).0005

摘要

自「特殊國與國關係」提出來之後，在國內外均引起不少之意見激盪。本文在不涉及意識形態之原則下，嘗試將政策分析的工具與國際關係理論結合，並以跨層分析(cross-level-of-analysis)之研究方法，來分析「特殊國與國關係」提出前之國內外原因背景，並進一步探討「特殊國與國關係」提出後之相關政策發展。基本上，本文認為「特殊國與國關係」之提出，是為因應美國總統柯林頓所提出之「三不政策」，及兩岸間即將來臨之政治談判。因此，本文將「特殊國與國關係」之決策視為一個「系統」，而此「系統」受國際與國內政治「環境」約制或鼓勵。作者認為「特殊國與國關係」之決人策，在本質上或戰略層面上是激進的(aggressive)；但在其技術上或戰術層面上卻採漸進模糊(mudding through)的方式。此種戰略與戰術之微妙落差極易引起一般人之困惑與質疑。針對此，作者提出3i決策模型，以理念(idea)、利益(interest)及制度化(institutionalization)來說明「特殊國與國關弟」決策之過程。

關鍵字

國際關係理論 ； 美─中─台三角關係 ； 跨層分析 ； 決策過程 ； 「特殊國與國關係」 ； 3i決策模型

並列摘要

The issue of “The special state-to-state relationship” between Taiwan and China has caused much controvery and confusion. Is the decision-making process behind the special state-to-state relationship lacking and premature or sophisticated and comprehensive? To answer these questions, we need to scrutinize not only international relations theory but also the theory of policy analysis. This includes a level-of-analysis approach to integrate knowledge between China-US-Taiwan relations and Taiwan's China policy.
In this essay, I have created the “3i decision-making model” to illustrate the causal relationship among ideas, interests, and institutions in policy analysis. However, the 3i model does not suggest a linear relationship among these variables. Rather, we try to understand this model via David Easton's system theory, and take the feedback process into account in the context of Taiwan's China policy making.
In brief, the 3i decision-making model suggests the difference between the strategies and tactics of the special state-to-state relationship. Taipei's decision makers, adopted aggressive strategies for this policy. Nevertheless, they have also deployed “muddling through” tactics to avoid pressure and opposition. The different approaches between strategies and tactics may partially account for the controversies and confusion of the decision-making process of the special state-to-state relationship.

並列關鍵字

international relations theory ； US-China-Taiwan relations ； cross-level-of-analysis ； “the special state-to-state relationship” ； the “3i decision making model” ； decision making process

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