中國大陸擴張性財政政策的微調轉型

經濟成長和體制改革是大陸經濟運作的兩大主軸，隨著改革的深化，市場景氣波動也在大陸出現。本文以一九九八年至二○○四年大陸實施擴張性（積極）財政政策為研究標的，首先探討經改過程中由短缺經濟至過剩經濟的變化邏輯，然後從凱恩斯學派的需求管理觀點，探討大陸所採取擴張性財政政策的內涵與成效。由於大陸還是一個轉型中不成熟的市場經濟，體制面的制約限制了財政政策工具的影響力。同時，在二○○四年波動反轉之時，也使其不必然存在退場的必要。在大陸當前體制下的財政政策，從供給面看來有待調整改進之處仍多，再加上社會意識形態要求其重視分配差距的問題，促使財政政策的調整與轉型，成為其發展的重心。現階段大陸財政政策的目標，是要將原本計畫體制色彩的財政體制繼續進行轉型與改革，以符合市場經濟體制的需求，並逐步達成其社會財富重新分配的目標。

關鍵字

擴張性財政政策；國債；財政收支；體制轉型；政策協調

並列摘要

Economic growth and institutional reform are two main aspects of China's economic reform. As reform deepens, economic fluctuation has begun to appear in China. The expansionary fiscal policy, implemented during 1998-2004, is the research aim of this paper. First of all, this paper explores the changing significance from economics of shortage to economics of surplus. Then, the paper evaluates the content and effect of the expansionary fiscal policy from the viewpoint of a Keynesian model. Because China is a transitional market economy, the institutional constraints limit the effect of fiscal policy. In 2004, even the economic fluctuation reversed and the expansionary fiscal policy becomes unnecessary to change. Since current fiscal policy needs to improve and the distributional gap has become a hot issue, adjustment and transformation of the fiscal policy has become the core of China's economic development. The current goal of China's fiscal policy will be to keep adjusting from a central economy to a market economy, and gradually achieve the aim of social welfare redistribution.