由“二元結構”、“鄉村城鎮化”到“大城市群”：中國大陸“城鄉關係”的探索

中國大陸改革開放以來，「向東傾斜」的經濟發展策略使東部沿海地區之發展一日千里，唯困於長久存在之城鄉「二元結構」體制，不少學者不諱言地指出：「中國的都市化遠遠滯后於其工業化」之事實。對具13億人口，近2億農村富餘勞動力之大國言，「小城鎮」、「中型城鎮」以迄「大城市群」發展等路徑於其經濟發展的不同歷史階段均曾有過論辯。本文試圖以Arthur Lewis所提出之「雙元模型」(dualistic model)，Terry McGee所闡述之「鄉村城鎮化」(Desakota)及近來大陸學者們所主張之「大城市群」(Urban clusters)等概念，藉助第四次及第五次人口普查資料，對應大陸各省區經濟發展指標之分析，檢視大陸總體經濟與空间發展變化之軌跡；另並佐以2004年起出現之「民工荒」現象，探索落實新一輪城鄉協調發展暨邁向「共同富裕」進程中之總體經濟增長模式轉變與勞動力空間轉移所面臨之挑戰。

關鍵字

二元結構；雙元模型；鄉村城鎮化；大城市群；城鄉關係；民工荒

並列摘要

Impressive economic development along China's coastal area can be witnessed after the adoption of the ”open policy.” However, it is a widely held view by Chinese scholars that ”China's urbanization process is lagging far behind its economic development path” mainly due to the reality of ”urban-rural dichotomy.” Thus, to a country with more than 1.3 billion in population and more than 0.2 billion surplus laborers, concepts such as ”Small Township,” ”Medium-size Cities” as well as ”Urban Clusters” have been debated over different stages of China's economic development. This paper, adopting the ”dualistic model” propounded by Arthur Lewis, ”Desakota” introduced by Terry McGee, and ”urban clusters” contended by a few Chinese scholars analyzes population flows based on the fourth and the fifth population census data against a series of macro-economic indicators. This paper intends to grasp the logic of Chinese macro-economic development with its spatial development pattern. Moreover, with data gathered on ”the shortage of migrated labor” phenomenon which has appeared since 2004, the article wishes to further explore what aspects of the ”growth model” need to be modified. Furthermore the study raises the question of how rural labor can be attracted to urban areas should the next run of development build upon a rural-urban coordination ethos, aiming at ”equal share of wealth.” This aim was made an integral part of the coming 11th five-year development plan, which has yet to actually take off.