初設階段預測公路工程完工工期之研究

DATA ANALYTICS FOR HIGHWAY PROJECT DURATION PREDICTION AT THE PRELIMINARY DESIGN PHASE

林致緯(Chih-Wei Lin) ； 周瑞生(Jui-Sheng Chou) ； 楊亦東(I-Tung Yang)

《中國土木水利工程學刊》 32卷1期 (2020/03) Pp. 63-73

https://doi.org/10.6652/JoCICHE.202003_32(1).0006

摘要

公共工程之興建乃以提供社會公眾使用為主要之目的，而在工程初步設計階段，常因現況資訊匱乏，茲使承辦人員多由過去相似工程之經驗值做為標案工期推估之依據，造成國內常發生多數工程未能如期完工之狀況。實務上，國內公共工程委員會標案管理系統中，各主辦機關歷年皆儲存數百件標案資訊，卻鮮少進行探勘該系統內蘊含的豐沛經驗知識。故，本文透過資料分析技術，蒐集過往專案暨其完工工期之原始資料，初探於初設階段完工工期預測之研究，以提供國內公路工程合理工期訂定之參考。爰此，本文藉由標案管理系統資料庫中，綜整國內某交通單位97～101年非開口契約2,413件標案、非開口契約標案工程結算書明細表及90件公路工程專案中於初設階段可能影響工期之因子與完工工期資料態樣，研提不同工程規模下完工工期之預測模型，研究分析流程及成果期能作為專案時程管理決策之依據。

關鍵字

初設階段 ； 迴歸分析 ； 資料探勘 ； 公路工程 ； 完工工期

並列摘要

Public works are constructed for use by the public. In a construction project's preliminary design phase, the pressure of ensuring the quality and timely completion of the construction project often compels the contractor, who may not possess much related information, to estimate the schedule according to empirical examples of similar projects. This reason alone accounts for a considerable proportion of construction delays in Taiwan. Although public agencies store a tremendous amount of information arising from public tenders each year in the public tender management systems currently operational in Taiwan, few attempts have been made to identify any discernable patterns through data analytic techniques. In consideration of this, the present study seeks to establish a model integrating tender histories from the Directorate General of Highways for scheduling construction projects still in their preliminary design phases. The model will also be of reference to the launch of early warning systems for construction scheduling in Taiwan. The present study analyzes, through data mining techniques, data on the 2,413 public tenders, public tender construction audit reports, and 90 road construction tenders stored in the database of the Directorate General of Highways' closed-contract public tender management system between 2008 and 2012. The results of this analysis are used to propose a model for scheduling construction projects still in their preliminary design phases. The systematical approach is expected to facilitate expedited schedule estimation and verification.

並列關鍵字

preliminary design phase ； regression analysis ； data mining ； highway project ； duration of completion