震災境況條件下影響居民避難行爲因素之研究－永康市爲例

Factors Influencing Residents' Evacuation Behaviors with Earthquake Disaster Scenario-Yung-kang City Case Study

李泳龍(Yung-Lung Lee) ； 何明錦(Ming-Chin Ho) ； 戴政安(Cheng-An Tai)

《建築學報》 65期 (2008/09) Pp. 27-44

https://doi.org/10.6377/JA.200809.0027

摘要

2005年臺南縣戶政資料顯示，永康市爲臺南縣人口數最多的地區，同時也是近十年來人口成長率最高的地方。至2004年止，永康市平均每人可使用的公園與綠地面積僅0.16平方公尺，顯然無法滿足日常生活所需，更難以因應災害異常時之避難需求。因此，本研究選定永康市爲實證研究範圍，透過居民問卷調查，並以過去常發生地震的災害假設性問題，嘗試分析不同社經背景之居民對於緊急避難據點的選擇類型及其避難行爲特性分析，藉由影響居民避難行爲之諸因素分析，以羅吉斯迴歸模型分析發生地震災害時，影響居民避難行爲之重要因素，以提供都市防災計畫訂定時之參考。研究發現：①永康市避難行爲相對弱勢群的家戶單位高達67.3%，需要謹慎考慮其避難問題，避免導致避難需求無法有效滿足；②居民對於緊急避難據點選擇類型大多以「學校型」設施爲主；③藉由羅吉斯迴歸模型發現地區避難交通計畫的接受意願、教育程度及居住年數等3個變數，爲影響居民遭遇地震時，是否避難的顯著因素。

關鍵字

地震災害 ； 避難行爲 ； 羅吉斯迴歸模型

並列摘要

According to the household survey 2005, Yung-kang City represented the most congested and highest growth area in Tainan County. At the end of 2004, green and open space area showed only 0.16m^2 per capita. It is difficult to meet the regular requirement and evacuating needs in times of disaster. This study selects Yung-kang city and applies residents' questionnaire investigation method using earthquake disaster scenario. The residents' characteristics of evacuation behavior are analyzed and evacuation model applied with logistic regression are also established. However considering all factors of residents' behavior of evacuation, we find: ①Evacuation weakness shows 67.3% of household samples, required special refuge plan. ②Emergent shelter type as 「school」 facility are most favorite. ③Applying Logistic Regression Model we find evacuation transportation planning, education level and residence years significantly influence the evacuation decision of residents.

並列關鍵字

Earthquake Disaster ； Evacuation Behavior ； Logistic Regression Model

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