明清疫情事件的統計分析與運氣學說的平年論述之比較

A Comparison of Statistical Analysis between the Epidemics in Ming and Qing Dynasties and the "Unharmed-Year" Hypothesis in Yun-Qi Theory

江駿然(Jun-Ran Jiang) ； 馮曄(Ye Feng) ； 洪金烈(Chin-Lieh Hung) ； 張恒鴻(Hen-Hong Chang) ； 楊賢鴻(Sien-Hung Yang) ； 郭忠禎(Jong-Jen Kuo) ； 陳玉昇(Yu-Sheng Chen)

《中醫藥雜誌》 15卷4期 (2004/12) Pp. 231-239

https://doi.org/10.6940/JCM.200412_15(4).01

摘要

歷代對於運氣七篇是否爲《內經》之原文，均有爭議，此一問題乃是屬於考據學的範疇，固然重要，然而我們認爲運氣學說是否真有其應用價值才是更應關切的問題。本研究依運氣學說對於“平年”的論述內容，將60個干支分爲兩組，一組爲運氣較爲平和的“平年”組，其餘干支則爲“非平年”組。本文針對明清兩代所發生的重大的疫情事件，研究其發生年代的干支屬性並比較運氣學說對於平年的論述，發現非平年組發生重大的疫情事件的趨勢高於平年組，且在統計上呈現有意義的差別，此一結果無法以目前的傳染病流行觀點來解釋。自1980年代開始，氣候因素對於疾病發生的影響逐漸受到注意，近十多年來，關於氣候對於生態所造成的影響及其對於傳染病流行的改變已有一些研究觀測，相關的研究顯示，一些傳染病的發生與氣候變化有關；另外，運氣學說敘述氣候、生態、疾病特點三者之間有密切的關聯；因此我們推測本研究的結果可能與氣候因素有關。未來在現有的基礎上，可望結合各個相關領域學科，尋找可觀測的可能影響參數，發展一套預測疫情發生趨勢的模型，以減少突發的疾病流行對於人類的不利影響。

關鍵字

運氣學說 ； 疫情 ； 氣候 ； SARS

並列摘要

For a long time, there has been debates on whether Yun-Qi theory (運氣學說) is one of the original part of Nei-Jin (內經) or not. However, this study assumed that the practical value and application of Yun-Qi theory are more important than the question above. This study divided the sixty Gan-Zhi (干支) into two groups, ”unharmed-year” and ”harmful-year”, and then analyzed the statistical data on the number of recorded epidemics in Ming (明) and Qing (清) dynasties in authorized history. It is found that the epidemic occurrence trend was significantly higher in the harmful-year group than that in the unharmed-year group. This result could not be explained by the current point of view on the epidemic of infectious diseases. Since 1980s, the influence of climatic factors on the epidemic of infectious diseases has been gradually recognised. In the last couple of decades, researches on the influence of climate on the ecosystem and the occurrence of infectious disease have already showed that the epidemic of infectious diseases was related to climatic changes. As the Yun-Qi theory stated a close relationship between climate, ecosystem and human diseases, it is speculated that the current result may also be related to climatic factors. Based on the current foundation, it is hoped that by integrating multidisciplinary researches in the future, a prediction model for the epidemic occurrence trend would be developed to minimize their harmful effect on human.

並列關鍵字

Yun-Qi theory ； Epidemic ； Climate ； SARS