台灣出租住宅市場與自有住宅市場價格調整關係之研究

The Relationship between Housing Rent and Price in Taiwan

彭建文(Chien-Wen Peng)

《都市與計劃》 31卷4期 (2004/12) Pp. 391-412

https://doi.org/10.6128/CP.31.4.391

摘要

從過去國內房租與房價的波動趨勢來看，房租與房價間的關係不如預期般明確，以往文獻所估算平均高達300以上的房租乘數亦顯得相當偏高與不合理。本文依據國內住宅市場供需結構重新建構房價與租金的調整模型。實證結果發現，同時考量結構改變與物價調整的模型較能正確反映房價與租金相關變數的調整關係。此外，房價影響因素依其重要性分別為所得、租金、結構改變、預期景氣、以及空屋率，而租金影響因素則依序為家戶數、房價、住宅存量、以及預期景氣。整體來看，房價對於租金的影響係數明顯高於租金對於房價的影響，預期增值對於房價與租金的影響大致相當，但影響方向相反，而住宅存量與空屋率分別對於租金與房價產生負向影響，但住宅存量對於租金的負向影響明顯大於空屋率對於房價的負向影響，上述三點差異可能是造成國內房價與租金波動趨勢不一致的重要原因，本文認為空屋率對於房價的影響力未如預期般大，可能是因為許多空屋的持有人將其空屋求租或閒置，並未直接將其在自有住宅市場求售所造成。

關鍵字

出租住宅市場 ； 自有住宅市場 ； 租金 ； 房價

並列摘要

Housing rent and price should have a very strong theoretical relationship, but this relationship seems not very clear in Taiwan's housing market. This study tries to reconstruct the housing rent and price adjustment model, and to clarify their relationship through empirical work. We found that a model that considers structural change and CPI adjustment has a better performance. We discover that the determinants of rent by their importance are household size, housing price, housing stock, and expected capital gain; while for housing price, the determinants in order are household income, rent, structure change, expected capital gain, and vacancy rate. The influence of housing price on rent is much higher than housing rent on price, and an expectation of capital gain has a positive effect on housing price but a negative effect on housing rent. In addition, housing stock has a negative effect on housing rent and its influence is higher than the influence of vacancy rate on housing price. These findings can explain the inconsistencies between housing rent and price quite well.

並列關鍵字

Housing service market ； Housing capital market ； Rent ； Price

參考文獻

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