臺灣房價與貸款成數、房屋使用者成本相關性的檢驗

The Relationship between House Prices and Credit Constraints: Evidence from Taiwan Housing Markets

陳柏如(Po-Ju Chen)

《經濟研究》 51卷2期 (2015/07) Pp. 225-256

摘要

為了解主管機關採取提高自有房屋稅賦負擔以及降低貸款成數的方法，是否能有效管理臺灣房價，本文研究房屋使用者成本及貸款成數與臺灣及臺北市實質房價的相關性。研究發現貸款成數是臺北市房價長期表現的決定因素，而房屋使用者成本對臺北市房價的影響係數未達顯著水準；相反地，貸款成數對臺灣房價的長期影響係數未達顯著水準，但房屋使用者成本卻對臺灣房價有顯著的影響。研究結果建議房價管理者在調控臺北市實質房價與臺灣實質房價時，應採取不同的措施。採取降低貸款成數的方式，長期而言應能有效抑制臺北市實質房價；但以降低貸款成數的方式管理臺灣實質房價則無法得到相同的效果。

關鍵字

貸款成數 ； 房屋使用者成本 ； 房價 ； 共整合關係 ； 修正後普通最小平方法

並列摘要

The correlation between house prices and credit constraints has been widely discussed in the literature after the recent boom and bust in U.S. housing markets. Previous studies explained house price changes in Taiwan without incorporating credit constraints. This article examines the links between loan-to-value ratios and house prices in both Taiwan and Taipei City. The empirical work herein provides evidence for the existence of long-run relationships between loan-to-value ratios and house prices and reveals the differences in factors that help explain the behavior of house prices in Taiwan and Taipei City. The results suggest employing a greater role of credit constraints rather than user cost of housing in managing the house prices of Taipei City.

並列關鍵字

Loan-to-Value Ratio ； User Cost of Housing ； House Prices ； Cointegration ； Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square

參考文獻

行政院金融監督管理委員會Financial Supervisory Commission (2007，2008)，http://www.fsc.gov.tw/

國泰建設公司 Cathay Real Estate Development Co. Ltd. (2012)，「國泰房地產指數季報」 “Cathay Real Estate Price Index Report Quarterly”，http://www.cathay-red.com.tw/。

臺北市稅捐稽徵處Taipei City Revenue Service，http://www.tpctax.taipei.gov.tw/

Cho, M. (2010), “Securitization and Asset Price Cycle: Causality and Post-Crisis Policy Reform,” KDI School Working Paper Series No. 10-08

Duca, J. V., J. Muellbauer and A. Murphy (2012), “Shifting Credit Standards and the Boom and Bust in U.S. House Prices: Time Series Evidencefrom the Past Three Decades,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper No. 1104