以時間數列觀點談樂透銷售量之行銷策略意涵

台灣電腦樂透發行初期之銷售盛況使得台北銀行順應社會的輿論而採取相關降溫措施；不過當樂透熱潮快速消退後，台北銀行卻採取了獎金加碼的活動以刺激樂透買氣。本文分析樂透銷售金額與時間、獎金累積狀況、頭獎獎金與期望價格等變數間的關係，來了解樂透銷售情形所顯示的行銷政策效果。本文的分析結果顯示：在樂透逐漸退燒的情形下，新的樂透玩法可避免消費者的新鮮感消退；而要刺激樂透銷售量的增長，累積獎金頻率的增加以及頭獎獎金的增加都是可行的方向。目前台北銀行新發行6/49大樂透的獎金設計，正好符合本文的實證結論。

關鍵字

行銷；公益彩券；樂透；價格彈性

並列摘要

Not until January 16, 2002 did Taipei Bank officially launch the first ”good causes” lotto game in Taiwan. The overheating lotto mania during the introducing period induced the intensive discussion concerning the existence and management of lottery game. However, Taipei Bank now has to introduce promotion activities to increase lotto sales because the lotto fever is cooling down. This paper employs regression models to examine the impacts of time, rollover, jackpot, and expected lotto price on lotto sales, and to analyze the marketing effects and implications. The empirical results show that the factors of Lunar New Year, promotion activities of higher jackpot, rollover, and expected price of lotto have positive impacts on lotto sales, while the factor of time has the converse. The marketing implication for future product strategy from the empirical results is that, to increase the lotto sale, Taipei Bank may need to change the current specifications or introduce a new lotto game by allowing a higher probability of rollover, a higher expected jackpot, and a lower expected price of lotto. The design of the new 6/49 lotto is the same as what this study proposes.

並列關鍵字

marketing ； lotto ； price elasticity

參考文獻

Clotfelter, C. T.,P. J. Cook(1990).Redefining `Success` in The State Lottery Business.Journal of Policy Analysis and Management.9(1),99-104.

Google Scholar

Cook, P. J.,C. T. Clotfelter(1993).The Peculiar Scale Economies of Lotto.The American Economics Review.83(3),634-643.

Google Scholar

Eadington, W. R.(1999).The Economics of Casino Gambling.Journal of Economic Perspectives.173-192.

Google Scholar

Farrell, L.,E. Morgenroth,I. Walker(1999).A Time Series Analysis of U.K. Lottery Sales: Long and Short Run Price Elasticities.Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.61(4),513-526.