回顧移轉支付問題：凱因斯、凡爾賽和約與德國一戰賠償

A Review of the Transfer Problem: Keynes, the Versailles Treaty, and the German Reparations

何泰寬(Tai-kuang Ho) ； 葉國俊(Kuo-chun Yeh)

《人文及社會科學集刊》 32卷2期 (2020/06) Pp. 159-206

摘要

一戰於1918年結束。最晚自1919年開始至1932年，凱因斯持續批評戰後協約國對於戰敗德國的索賠金額。凱因斯在辯論時使用的最重要分析觀念，就是移轉支付。本文回顧凱因斯提出的移轉支付問題，以及晚近對於凱因斯觀點的修正。由於移轉支付問題是凱因斯歐洲債務重整計畫的一部分，本文也一併討論他所提出的協約國債務處理方案，及其所涉及的利益衝突。

關鍵字

移轉支付問題 ； 凱因斯 ； 德國一戰賠償 ； 凡爾賽和約

並列摘要

World War I ended in 1918. From at least as early as 1919 to 1932, Keynes kept criticizing the Allies' reparations policy towards defeated Germany. In the debate he initiated, the most powerful idea that Keynes resorted to was the concept of the transfer problem. This article review Keynes's transfer problem and the recent amendment to Keynes's point of view. Since the transfer problem was part of Keynes's plan for European debt restructuring, this article also discusses Keynes's proposals for dealing with interally war debts and his conflict of interest during the debate.

並列關鍵字

transfer problem ； John Maynard Keynes ； German reparations ； Treaty of Versailles

參考文獻

蔣碩傑 1992〈海耶克與凱因斯的貨幣理論〉，《經濟前瞻》27: 137-138。(Tsiang, S. C., 1992, “The Monetary Theories of Friedrich August von Hayek and John Maynard Keynes,” Economic Outlook Monthly 27: 137-138.)

Accominotti, Olivier and Barry Eichengreen 2016 “The Mother of All Sudden Stops: Capital Flows and Reversals in Europe, 1919-32,” Economic History Review 69(2): 469-492.

Balogh, Thomas and Andrew Graham 1979 “The Transfer Problem Revisited: Analogies between the Reparations Payments of the 1920s and the Problems of the OPEC Surpluses,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 41(3): 183-191.

Bank of England 2018 “A Millennium of Macroeconomic Data,” Retrieved May 03, 2020, from http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/research-datasets

Bhagwati, Jagdish, Richard Brecher, and Tatsuo Hatta 1983 “The Generalized Theory of Transfers and Welfare: Bilateral Transfers in a Multilateral World,” American Economic Review 73(4): 606-618.